Stellar Lumen’s poor run of form came to a head yesterday. The XLM price slumped to a price last seen on January 6th. So what happens now?
XLM is last trading at $0.2582, higher by $0.023 (+9.97%)
There have been signs for quite some time that the XLM price was in danger of breaking down. The writing was on the wall as soon as the 50-day moving average crossed below the 100 DMA on the 19th of June.
In my report on the 20th, I asked, ‘How much worse can it get for XLM?’ Unfortunately, it turns out, quite a lot worse.
In the two days that followed, Stellar lost 30, exceeding my first predicted support level of $0.2270 and trading as low as $0.1952.
However, by the end of play yesterday, Stellar managed to recover this important support level, finishing the session at $0.2351 and only marginally lower than the previous day’s close of $0.2328.
This should be viewed as cautiously encouraging. Furthermore, this morning, XLM is on its way to printing only the second green daily candle in the last 10 days.
However, the outlook remains mixed at best. And investors could be forgiven for remaining skeptical. That being said, the bulls will point to Bitcoin’s return to $34,000 as a positive sign.
The daily chart is showing some improvement in the technical outlook. Moreover, the XLM price has climbed above the $0.2564 low of the May 19th crypto crash.
This was an essential area of support on the way down, and its breach could be considered the trigger for the latest round of liquidations.
Therefore, if Stellar Lumens closes above $0.2564, the outlook will improve further.
Nevertheless, the price will need more than one green candle to reverse its negative trend. In addition, XLM would benefit from a period of consolidation to restore confidence in its recovery. One potential cause for concern was a lack of increased trading volume during yesterday’s collapse.
Typically, blow-off tops and bottoms witness increasing trading activity before changing course. However, the latest low-volume decline is not indicative of capitulation, suggesting that bulls have not yet reached their point of maximum pain.
Therefore, a price reversal below the $0.2770 support may encourage selling and invalidate the immediate bullish outlook.
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