The Federal Reserve was the biggest “game in town” this week as it delivered its rate decision. On Wednesday, the bank roiled the market with its sober prediction about the US economy. In the statement, the bank said that they will retain interest rates at the current level as the economy continues to contract. This news, together with sudden concerns about a second wave of coronavirus, led to a sharp decline in US stocks. Let us look at the key items to watch in the economic calendar in the coming week.
On Monday, the statistics office in China will release the May industrial production numbers. These data will provide a picture of whether the economy is indeed on a path to recovery. Analysts expect the production to have improved by 5% in May from the 3.9% experienced in April. They also expect the fixed asset investments to fall by 5.9%, which is a better number than the previous decline of 10.3%. Also, the office is expected to release slightly better retail sales numbers. The key currency pair to watch in this will be the AUDUSD.
The Bank of Japan will be the first major central bank to deliver its rates decision in the coming week. Analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at -0.10% and extend the asset purchases. Market watchers will be looking the bank’s statement to see whether it is planning to do more to weaken the Japanese yen. As a major exporter, the country prefers a weaker yen. The key currency pair to watch will be the USDJPY.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has made it clear that it believes that the Swiss franc is overvalued. The governor has also said that he is willing to push interest rates further in the negative territory. The bank will deliver its decision on Thursday and there is a possibility that it will surprise the market. That is because the Swiss franc has been on an upward trend against the US dollar in recent weeks. Therefore, it could lower rates, re-introduce the peg, and even launch an asset purchase program. The pair to focus on will be the USDCHF.
The Bank of England (BOE) will also deliver its rate decision on Thursday. Analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged. But, in an update sent today, analysts at Bank of America predicted that the bank could surprise the market and lower rates. Also, the bank will likely announce a £200 billion addition to its quantitative easing program. The key pairs to watch will be the EURGBP and GBPUSD.
Other central banks that will deliver their rates decision will be Norges Bank, Brazil, and Russia.
We will receive important data from the United States. Among the key to watch will be the New York manufacturing index, retail sales, building permits, housing starts, jobless claims, and current account. The main currencies to watch will be the GBPUSD, DXY, and EURUSD.
In addition to these, there will be vast amount of data that will be released next week. From Australia, we will get the RBA minutes, new home sales, employment data, and retail sales. In the United Kingdom, we will receive the employment data, inflation numbers, and retail sales. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, Eurostat will release the inflation numbers.
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