USDZAR
The USDZAR pair is up by more than 1% as investors react to the weak inflation data from South Africa and the overall strong dollar. The South African rand has also fallen against the euro and British pound.
The South African rand has been on an upward trend against key currencies mostly because of the falling number of new infections. The number of daily infections has dropped from more than 13,000 in July to slightly above 1,000 yesterday. In total, the country has confirmed more than 718k cases and about 19,000 deaths.
In a report earlier today, the South African statistics bureau said that the consumer price index declined from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September. On a month-on-month basis, the prices remained unchanged at 0.2%. At the same time, the core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, remained unchanged at 0.2% and 3.3% on a MoM and YoY basis, respectively.
The USDZAR pair is also rising because of the overall strength of the US dollar. The dollar index has jumped by 0.50% as investors rush to its safety. This is because the pandemic is getting out of hand in most countries even as a vaccine remains elusive. As such, when global risks rise, the dollar usually rises because of its role as a safe-haven currency.
The daily chart shows that the USDZAR pair is rising for the second consecutive day. The pair has also formed a head and shoulders pattern. It is currently in the right shoulder and below the 15-day and 25-day exponential moving averages. Also, it is along the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. It is also below the descending green trendline that connects the highest levels in August and September.
Therefore, even with the current jump, I suspect that the price will continue falling as bears aim for the next support at 15.90, which is the 61.8% retracement. However, a move above 16.70 will invalidate this trend.
