USDNOK
USDNOK is under selling pressure for one more day and breaks below the critical 200-day moving average, which might accelerate the pressures. Today better unemployment data from Norway boosted NOK. The Norway Unemployment non seasonally adjusted came in at 4.8% below the expectations of 4.9% in June. The return of risk appetite in markets have supported risky assets and shifted investors attention away from the safe-haven USD.
The macroeconomic data have improved more than expected in the last weeks. The central bank of Norway (Norges Bank) has cut the interest rates three times since March to 0% from 1.5%. In the latest meeting, Norges Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and now analysts expect to keep the rates at 0% until 2023.
Norway is Europe’s top oil producer, and the recovery in crude oil prices supported Norway’s economy and NOK.
On the other hand, USD failed to capitalize on the recent better than expected economic figures from the USA. Yesterday, the NFP data surprised positive the investors. The Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 4,8 million, beating the analyst’s expectations of around 3 million in June. The 4.8 million new additions were the most jobs to be created in a month since the records began in 1939. The Unemployment Rate came at 11.1%, beating the consensus of 12.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings came in at 5% below the forecasts of 5.3%.
USDNOK trades 0.28% lower at 9.5002 as the bears looking for a settlement below the 200-day moving average that would attract more selling action. The 200-day moving average has proved a strong floor for the pair during the last month. The technical picture for USDNOK is bearish now, and a move down to June lows can’t be ruled out.
On the downside, initial support for USDNOK stands at 9.4858 the daily low. If the pair breaks below, the next support area will be met at 9.4477 the low from July 2 trading session. A break below might challenge 9.2769 the low from June 11.
On the other side, the first resistance stands at 9.5439 the daily top. A move above that level might challenge 9.6340 the high from July 1st trading session. A break above 9.6340 might target 9.8212 the 50-day moving average.
