that India’s economy remains strong-and this will support the rupee’s recovery in the medium term. Meanwhile, the dollar got tailwinds from New Home Sales data which showed that 693,000 new homes were sold in March, higher than the forecast 668,000. The sector reported declines in January and February. Also, the number of building permits issued rose by 1.467 million, beating the consensus forecast 1.458 million.
However, the dollar’s upside will be limited by weaker-than-expected US manufacturing and services data. The preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI data for April showed a decline from 51.9 in March to 49.9, missing the forecast figure of 52.0. Similarly, the S&P Global US Services PMI missed the forecast figure of 52.0 to come in at 50.9, a decline from March’s 51.7. The rupee could also benefit from the decline in global oil prices. Dollar-denominated crude oil prices have declined significantly in the last week, which could help India’s oil importers spend less dollars, hence strengthening the rupee.
Technical analysis
USDINR is on a downward momentum, with the RSI signaling that the sellers are in control. The downtrend is likely to continue if resistance remains at the 83.32 pivot. That could see them break the support at 83.25. A continuation of control by the sellers could strengthen the downward momentum to test 83.18. Conversely, a move above the pivot mark will favour the buyers. However, they will encounter resistance at 83.36. An extension of the bullish control at that level will likely break the.
