USDCHF Scenarios as America Counts the Votes

Summary:

The USDCHF pair is under pressure as the uncertainty surrounding the US elections continues. However, a rounding bottom pattern signals a possible reversal.

America continues to count the votes as some key states cannot be called. In the meantime, the USDCHF moves on a rollercoaster, mostly driven by the price action in equities.

From a fundamental perspective, the US elections news and outcome drive the price action in the stock market. In turn, the stock market drives the action in the USD pairs. As such, one cannot interpret the FX market and the USD in particular without having a look at the Dow Jones or other major American stock market indices.

From a technical perspective, the USDCHF may have formed a rounding bottom at the 0.90 area. If that is the case, bulls want to see another attempt at the recent highs. On the other hand, if bears manage to send the pair below the lower low seen in the chart above, the bullish pattern gets invalidated.

The Fed Remains Key for the USD in the Short to Medium Term

While the focus for the moment stays with the elections’ outcome, it will quickly shift back to the Fed once we know the new President of the United States. As such, tomorrow’s Fed decision coupled with the NFP on Friday will likely generate additional volatility on the USDCHF pair and on the US pairs in general.

It may very well be that the votes will still be counted by the time the Fed releases its statement tomorrow. Therefore, the Fed may decide to postpone an eventual monetary policy decision until there is a clear outcome – an unlikely scenario given the Fed’s independence and mandate.

Rounding Bottom on the USDCHF Pair?

The technical picture shows the USDCHF pair forming a possible rounding bottom. A move below the pattern’s lowest point invalidates it. On the other hand, a move higher and a close above the upper blue trendline, points towards an additional bullish reversal pattern – a contracting triangle. If that is the case, bulls may want to stay long for 0.95 minimum with a stop at the lows.