USD/TRY: What to Expect with Turkish Inflation Data in Focus

Summary:

USD/TRY is trading within a tight range ahead of the Turkish inflation data. The data comes days after CBRT raised reserve requirements for foreign currency

USD/TRY remains range-bound ahead of the Turkish inflation data. As for June’s CPI, analyst expect consumer prices to have risen by 1.50% MoM compared to the previous month’s 0.89%. On a year-on-year basis, the forecasted reading of 17.00% is a point higher than the prior 16.59%.

As for the producer prices, investors will be keen on whether the released figure surpasses June’s 3.92% MoM. Notably, higher-than-expected figures are likely to exert pressure on USD/TRY.

The inflation data comes a few days after the country’s central bank adjusted its reserve requirement ratios for foreign currency deposits. CBRT’s main objective is to lower the share of foreign currencies in favor of the Turkish Lira.

USDTRY technical outlook

Since the beginning of July, USD/TRY has been range-bound between 8.6466 and 8.7265. At the time of writing, the currency pair was down by 0.17% at 8.6865. On a two-hour chart, it is trading slightly below the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. Based on the technical indicators, the outlook is rather neutral.

In the near term, I expect USD/TRY to continue trading within the horizontal channel. Notably, a move past the channel’s upper border of 8.7265 will clear the path for the next target at 8.8000. However, the bulls would still need to push the prices past the resistance level of 8.7509. On the flip side, a move below 8.6466 will place the support level at 8.6000.