USD/TRY Under Pressure After Nearly 20% Drop On New Turkey Economic Rescue Plan

Summary:

USD/TRY falls by 19.73% in largest single-day drop since 1983 as Turkish government plans to guarantee returns on local currency deposits.

Having fallen steeply against the greenback with the USD/TRY touching off the 18.00 price mark, the Lira was badly in need of a break and got in on Monday. After touching all-time highs at 18.3911, the USD/TRY has undergone a correction after the Lira staged the biggest single day jump against the US Dollar since 1983, following the announcement of an unprecedented economic rescue plan by President Recep Erdogan.

According to details obtained from a Wall Street Journal publication on the issue, Mr Erdogan that the differential in returns between the local and foreign currency deposits would be covered by the Treasury and paid to depositors, in a move designed to spur demand for the Lira-based fixed income investments.

The anti-dollarization measure includes the creation of an FX-indexed Turkish Lira deposit tool for individuals with Lira-based deposits that have maturities of 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 1 year, and publication of USD buying rates at 11am local time, which will be used to calculate any differentials between the local deposit and foreign deposit rates. The differential will be paid to the depositors from the Treasury.

The USD/TRY fell 19.73% on Monday, and is only marginally lower this Tuesday after a strong bounce allowed the bulls pare some of the day’s losses.

USD/TRY Outlook

The intraday drop broke through the 11.8089 support and bounced off the 11.1767 support line, allowing the bulls to push price back above 11.8089, which preserves the integrity of this support level. Price is now testing the resistance at 13.1947. If it fails to hold, then 13.8858 becomes the next available target.

On the other hand, rejection of the uptick at 13.1947 may allow for renewed selling on the pair, targeting 12.38023 initially, before 11.8089 and 11.1767 line up once more as potential targets to the south. An extension of this decline below today’s low brings 10.42135 into the mix.