The Ruble weakened against the US Dollar this Friday after the Russian Central Bank (CBR) opted to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25%. This decision met market expectations, allowing the USD/RUB pair to rise 1% immediately after the news release.
In its statement, the CBR noted that annual inflation was expected to stay at 4%, with accelerated vaccinations and expectations of financial support measures contributing to the recovery of prices in financial and commodity markets.
The Ruble has gained significantly in the last 2 months as rising crude oil prices support the oil-linked currency. Broader weakness on the greenback from expectations of a massive US stimulus also helped the Ruble to 2-month highs this February.
Yesterday’s closing price marked the attainment of the measured move from the breakdown of the rising wedge pattern on the daily chart. After yesterday’s closing violation below the 73.919 support, the combination of a stronger dollar and the CBR’s decision has allowed the pair to move upwards towards the 74.52 resistance, thus invalidating the breakout attempt. Price pulled back just short of the resistance mark.
74.52 remains the price to beat for bulls. A break of this area allows bulls to target the 75.487 resistance level. 75.974 and 76.511 are potential upside barriers for price action, above which the uptrend resumes towards 78.195.
On the flip side, a pullback following rejection at 74.52 brings in 73.919 into the picture once more. Below this level, 72.802 and 71.981 appear as new targets for sellers.
