USD/RUB Forecast: Brace for Big USD to Ruble Moves

Summary:
• The USD/RUB price has been in a tight range in the past few months as the war in Ukraine continues. It was trading at 60

The USD/RUB price has been in a tight range in the past few months as the war in Ukraine continues. It was trading at 60 on Tuesday morning, where it has been in the past few months. This price is a few percentage points above the year-to-date low of 50 and 61% below the year-to-date high of 154. Focus now shifts to the upcoming sanctions on Russian oil by western countries.

USD to Russian ruble catalysts

The USD to ruble exchange rate has been in a consolidation despite the significant sanctions imposed by western countries. This price action is in line with that of other pairs like the GBP/RUB and EUR/RUB. The Russian ruble has strengthened because of the strong shipments of oil and gas and the actions by the country’s central bank.

Shortly after the invasion happened, the Russian central bank pushed interest rates to 20% and announced measures to prevent capital outflow. It has reduced rates significantly since then to about 10%. At the same time, the Russian government announced new rules on gas imports that boosted the ruble. All adversaries were forced to pay for gas using the ruble. 

The USD/RUB also did well as Russia’s oil and natural gas exports did well despite sanctions. While oil exports have dropped slightly, the country has benefited from elevated prices. China and Russia have also bought vast volumes of oil cargo.

The next key catalyst for the USD to Russian ruble will be the upcoming consumer confidence data. Economists expect that confidence declined from 102 in October to 100 in November. Still, with inflation easing, I expect confidence to be higher. 

The pair will also react to the upcoming ban of Russian seabound cargo in Europe. Western countries will also seek to place a cap of Russian oil prices. This process will work using western insurance companies, which will be forced to insure the cargo as long as prices are those set by these countries. Still, the impact of these sanctions on the ruble will be limited.

USD/RUB forecast

The daily chart shows that the USD to RUB price has been moving sideways in the past few months. Along the way, it formed a symmetrical triangle pattern that is shown in yellow. It has also consolidated along the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the RSI has remained at the neutral point at 50. 

Therefore, with the triangle nearing its confluence level, there is a likelihood that it will soon have a major breakout. While it is hard to predict, the pair will likely have a bearish breakout as sellers target the support at 50. A move above the resistance at 65 will invalidate the bearish move.