USD/CAD: Probable Range-bound Trading Amid Rising Treasury Yields

Summary:

USD/CAD is trading higher as a reaction to the rebounding US Treasury yields. However, it is findings support in higher-than-expected Canadian retail sales.

USD/CAD is on a rebound amid rising US Treasury yields. Earlier in the day, the currency pair was on a decline as the benchmark 10-year US bond yields fell from 1.649 to an intraday low of 1.611. However, it is on a rebound at its current 1.634. Subsequently, the currency pair is up by 0.04% at 1.2063.

USD/CAD is also reacting to the Canadian inflation data released on Friday afternoon. According to Statistics Canada, retail sales rose by 3.6% in March compared to the forecasted 2.3% MoM. However, the figure is lower than the prior month’s 4.8%. With the exclusion of food and energy, core retail sales were up by 4.3% compared to the estimated 2.2%. The higher-than-expected numbers are offering support to the Canadian dollar.

Notably, the rise in crude oil price has further supported the commodity currency. At the time of writing, WTI futures were up by 2.86% at $63.69.

USDCAD Technical Outlook

USD/CAD is on a rebound after declining earlier on Friday. Earlier in the session, the currency pair dropped from 1.2095 to an intraday low of 1.2028. However, it has recouped some of those losses by trading at its current 1.2063, up by 0.04%.

On an hourly chart, it is trading along the 25-day EMA and slightly below the 50-day EMA. I expect USD/CAD to trade within a range of 1.2100 and the psychological 1.2000 in the near term. This thesis will be invalidated by a move past the upper or lower border of the horizontal channel.