The EURCHF is falling steeply as part of a Swiss Franc surge against the majors, following the decision of the US to include Switzerland in its watch-list of “currency manipulators” on Tuesday. The EURCHF is presently trading 0.38% lower after investors placed huge demand on the Swiss Franc, following this development, as it is expected to make it harder for forex market interventions to be done by the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
This announcement is coming nearly 5 years after the SNB de-pegged the Swiss Franc from the Euro after initially introducing the 1.2000 exchange rate peg in September 2011. The January 15 2015 announcement caused great upheaval in the forex market and bankrupted several exposed brokerage firms and their clients.
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The EURCHF pair is now at lows not seen in 33 months, and is currently trading at 1.0763. The pair has emerged from the bearish flag seen on the weekly chart and has had at least two successive weekly candle closes below the flag, thus confirming the resumption of the downtrend. This downtrending move is also threatening the support seen at 1.0791, where previous lows of 25 July 2016 and 24 April 2017 exist, as do previous highs at 28 Nov 2016 and 6 March 2017.
A 3% penetration close of the weekly candle below this support level confirms the downside break and opens the door for the EURCHF to complete the measured move from the broken flag, expected to terminate at the next support level at 1.06152 (previous lows of 20 Jun 2016 and 27 Feb 2017).
On the flip side, failure to break the 1.0791 support could allow the EURCHF retest the broken flag border, which should provide the initial resistance somewhere around the 1.1096 price level, where a horizontal resistance also exists.