US GDP: Atlanta Fed Differs With New York Fed on Expectations

Summary:

Differing expectations for Q3 2020 GDP do not stop the ascent of the USDJPY, as it marks a straight week of daily gains to gross more than 1%.

The Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and New York have released their US Q3 2020 GDP outlooks, and there is a significant difference in expectations. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expects the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States to rise by 32% in Q3 2020, according to its GDPNow report. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expecting only a 14.3% expansion of the US economy in the 3rd quarter of 2020, and a rise of just 5% in Q4 2020.

While the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is drawing its outlook from the increase in the nowcast for Q3 2020 real non-residential equipment investment, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York cited the “negative surprise” from shipments data of manufacturers as the reason for its diminished but positive outlook.

The outlook reports did not affect the USDJPY, which looks set to close out a 5th straight day of gains to mark a weekly increase of 1.02% at the time of writing.

Technical Outlook for USDJPY

The pair looks set to challenge the 105.75 price level, after staging a V-shaped recovery pattern. A break above this level targets the 106.659 price mark. This level intersects the descending channel’s return line, and a breakout above this border opens the pathway towards 107.824.

Conversely, failure to break 106.65 could bring sellers into the fray, targeting a pullback towards 105.75. If the price does not break 105.75 in the course of today’s challenge from the south, 104.98 could be the new target. 104.56 marks the last barrier before a downward move in prices can challenge the channel’s lower border.