Turkish Lira Could Gain Despite Ongoing War Tensions

Summary:

The USDTRY uptrend is under pressure despite the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia threatening sanctions from the EU.

The USDTRY uptrend is under pressure despite the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. French President Macron warned Turkey against sending troops to the border, whilst the President Erdogan criticized the EU over sanctions threats.

War has been raging between Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan and Armenia. There were fears that Russia could be dragged into a proxy war due to the country having a military base there. French intelligence said 300 fighters from Syria had passed through Turkey, heading for Azerbaijan, with Macron saying a, “a red line has been crossed”. The presidents of France, Russia and the U.S. called for an immediate ceasefire but Turkey insisted they should have no influence on the conflict.

Turkey has been under threat of sanctions over the current conflict, and for the exploration of oil and gas in Cypriot-claimed waters. The threat of sanctions is not affecting the Lira, which has found some support since a surprise 2% rate rise in the recent central bank policy meeting. Turkish inflation printed 11.7% in the last reading and if the rate rise hasn’t tamed this then another round of Lira buying could happen.

The U.S. dollar awaits Non Farm Payrolls data, which is hoped to show 850k new jobs added. Markets are reeling from the news that President Trump had tested positive for coronavirus. This is raising fears over the upcoming U.S. election debates and the passage of further stimulus measures for the economy.

USDTRY Technical Outlook

The Turkish Lira gained on the recent rate increase but bounced well at support. The price has tested that line again but is struggling to get higher. A bearish close today could see the uptrend line tested again. Resistance is at 7.800. The pair has support levels around 7.600 and 7.500 as the first targets. The Investing Cube team is currently available to assist all levels of traders with a Forex Trading Course or one-to-one coaching.