- Summary:
- In this TUI and IAG share price forecast, we explain what to expect as aviation stocks slump globally as the number of Covid cases rise
The TUI and IAG share prices slumped on Tuesday as the Covid situation worsened, putting risks to the aviation industry. IAG and TUI shares declined by more than 3% and are more than 30% below their highest levels this year. Other aviation companies like EasyJet and Ryanair shares also slumped.
Aviation stocks slump
The aviation sector has been banking on a swift global reopening as countries continue their vaccination drive. Some countries have already started reopening their airports to foreign aircraft.
In the most recent earnings releases, most airlines expressed hopes that the sector will do relatively well in the second half of the year.
Now, there are concerns that the sector will not have a strong recovery after all. In the past few weeks, more countries have continued to report more Covid cases.
For example, Australia reported more than 600 cases earlier today while New Zealand moved into lockdown. This happened after the country recorded 1 case. China and other Asian countries have seen a jump in Covid cases.
This trend has had a negative impact on companies with exposure to the Covid pandemic. For example, aviation companies like TUI, EasyJet, Ryanair, and IAG share prices have slumped. Similarly, movie theatre companies like Cinemark and Cineworld and cruiseliners like Carnival and Royal Caribbean have also declined.
TUI share price forecast
The daily chart shows that the TUI share price rose to a year-to-date high of 470p early this year. Since then, the stock has been on a steep downward trend and is now trading at 312p. At the same time, the stock has declined below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The two have even made a bearish crossover.
It is also slightly below the important support at 352p, which was along the 38.2% retracement level. Therefore, more weakness will be confirmed if the stock declines below the support at 300p, which was the lowest level on July 19. The bearish view will be invalidated if it rises above 355p.
IAG share price forecast
A closer look at the IAG share price daily chart shows a closer relationship with that of TUI. The stock rose to 233p early this year and has now dropped to 154p. The stock is approaching the key support at the 50% retracement level. The 100-day and 50-day moving averages have also made a bearish crossover pattern.
Therefore, like TUI, the stock will likely maintain the bearish trend as bears target the 61.8% retracement at 138p. On the flip side, a jump above 170p will invalidate this view.
