- Summary:
- Tesla share price has been on an upbeat momentum since late August not because of a focus on its delivery numbers, but on something bigger.
Tesla price slipped on Wednesday, losing 3.6 percent of its value to trade at $250.20 in the early hours of trading. The decline was precipitated by its quarterly figures which met analysts’ forecast estimates, but somehow managed to dampen investors’ mood. The EV maker reported delivering 462,890 vehicles in the third quarter, aligning with 463,000 median estimate by Wall Street analysts.
Despite reporting the first quarterly growth in 2024, the figures also meant that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) will likely miss its full-year delivery targets. The third quarter was a 4 percent growth from the second quarter numbers and a 6 percent growth from the corresponding quarter last year.
However, with only one quarter to go, Tesla has delivered 1.294 million vehicles, meaning that it has to deliver at least 506,000 vehicles to meet Wall Street forecasts for the full year. That could be an uphill task in an environment of tightening competition, especially from Chinese EV makers.
Also, a decline in energy delivery was another disappointment in the latest quarterly report. Tesla reported that it generated 6.9 GWh of energy, a sharp drop from Q2’s 9.4 GWh. The company sent home its entire Supercharger team in May, but it is unclear if that might have played a role in the decline.
Contextualising the deliveries and Robotaxi inflection
Tesla will announce its quarterly earnings on October 23, about a fortnight after unveiling its robotaxi. Despite the mixed outlook in its third quarter performance, it is imperative to remember that the company warned of a potential decline in delivery numbers earlier this year, as it focuses on other growth areas. Therefore the latest figures should be looked at in the context of that guidance.
Furthermore, the highlight of the month will likely be the robotaxi unveiling, which is set for October 10. The robotaxi is a potential inflection point in Tesla’s growth plans, given its leaning towards AI and upgrade to Full Self Drive technology. Therefore, I expect the market to readjust and for Tesla share price to return to the ascending trajectory this week.
Tesla share price forecast
The Money Flow Index (MFI) shows that bears have taken charge of the Tesla share price momentum, and I expect the downside to prevail if resistance persists at 252.00. In addition, the first support will likely be at 248.65, but extended bearishness could breach that level and test 244.80.
Conversely, the buyers will have the upper hand if Tesla stock price goes above 252.00. In that case, initial resistance could come at 255.10. However, if the upside momentum strengthens, it could break above that mark and render the bearish narrative invalid. Meanwhile, the price could rise to test the second resistance at 258.55.
