S&P/ASX 200 Index Crawls Back Ahead of RBA Decision

Summary:
• What is the outlook of the S&P/ASX 200 index ahead of the RBA decision scheduled for next week? We explain what to expect.

The S&P/ASX 200 index crawled back on Thursday morning as investors refocused on the upcoming interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The index rose to a high of $7,325, which was significantly higher than this week’s low of $7,186. However, it remains about 4% below the highest level this month. The rebound is in line with other global indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and DAX.

Commodity stocks lead

Australian stocks did well as investors reacted to the strong performance of some big tech names in the United States. For example, Meta Platforms stock price jumped by more than 18% after the company signalled that its ad business was still strong. Similarly, Microsoft’s stock price rose after publishing strong cloud computing results. However, Australian stocks tend to perform in line with their American counterparts in most periods.

The next key catalyst for the ASX 200 will be the upcoming interest rate decision by the RBA. Analysts expect the Australian central bank to sound hawkish next week, considering that inflation has risen while the unemployment rate has fallen. In addition, data published on Wednesday showed that the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose to over 5% in Q1. 

Commodity stocks did well today. The best performers in the S&P/ASX 200 wee Sandfire Resources, Fortescue Metals, Whitehaven Coal, Nickel Mines, OZ Minerals, and Mineral Resources. All these shares jumped by over 5% as demand for commodities jumped. Other top performers in the index were Champion, BHP, AMP, and New Hope Corporation.

On the other hand, the top laggards in the ASX index were Paladin Energy, Allkem, Home Consortium, and Newcrest Mining. These stocks crashed by over 3%. The Westpac share price rose by 0.62% ahead of the RBA decision.

S&P/ASX 200 share price forecast

The daily chart shows that the ASX 200 index has bounced back in the past two straight days. However, the index is still sharply below this month’s highest point and the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It has also moved above the key support level at $7,130. Further, the index has slipped below the important resistance at $7,626, where it has struggled moving above recently. 

Therefore, there is a possibility that the S&P/ASX 200 index will resume the downward trend and retest the support at $7,130. However, a move above the resistance at $7,400 will invalidate the bearish view.