- Summary:
- Silver is presently range-bound, but could start to trend if we have tradable numbers from the ADP Employment Change data.
Silver prices (XAGUSD) are currently trading at $17.25 within the previous range that was identified in my last silver article, as the focus for today shifts to the ADP Employment Change report.
The ADP Employment change is a measure of labor market conditions in the US, and it measures the change in employment in the private sector. It excludes the agricultural sector. The report is scheduled for release at 12.15pm GMT.
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Technical Outlook for Silver Prices (XAGUSD)
I stated in my analysis for this commodity on Monday that silver prices would find support at the $16.94 level, the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on daily close prices from August 8 to 23. The price bounced nicely and has ticked back up to the present levels.
This provides a near-term range formed by the $16.94 support level and the resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $17.60.
A change in ADP Employment that is USD positive could trigger a selloff in silver prices, which brings the $16.94 resistance under challenge and a further push to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 17.62 if $16.94 is violated successfully.
On the flip side, an ADP Employment change that is viewed as USD-negative could prompt demand for XAGUSD which may move the pair up to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $17.60. Further resistance lies at the September 18 high of $17.99 and this may be approached if price is strong enough to break above $17.60.
These scenarios will require that the ADP Employment Change meets deviation parameters. A deviation of 45K to the upside or downside will make the number tradable according to my analysis.