Silver Price Prediction Ahead of US Inflation Data

Summary:
• Silver price remained under pressure as investors focused on the latest US non-farm payrolls and robust China trade numbers.

Silver price remained under pressure as investors focused on the latest US non-farm payrolls and robust China trade numbers. The XAG/USD price was trading at $19.87 on Monday morning, which was about 3.24% below the highest point this month. This performance mirrors that of gold, which has pulled back to about $1,772.

US jobs and China trade data

Silver and other precious metals like gold, platinum, and palladium stage a strong rebound earlier this month. This performance happened as the US dollar index continued slipping after the most recent interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The bank decided to hike rates by 0.75% in a bid to fight the rising inflation. At the time, most analysts expected that the bank will start shifting from a highly aggressive tone.

The US jobs numbers published last Friday led many investors to anticipate that the hawkish tone will continue. The labour market is substantially vibrant, with the unemployment rate retreating to 3.5%. The economy added over 528k jobs while wage growth did better than expected. Silver’s numbers are important because they are precious metal.

Silver price is also reacting to the strong China trade data. On Sunday, data from the second-biggest economy in the world showed that exports rose by over 16% while imports rose by just 2%. As a result, its total trade surplus widened to over $100 billion. This is a sign that silver biggest market is doing well.

Silver price prediction

The four-hour chart shows that silver price made a strong bullish recovery on July 27th of this year. At the time, the price moved above the upper side of the triangle pattern shown in blue. It then managed to move above the important resistance point at $19.42, which was the highest point on July 9th. 

Silver then found a strong resistance at $20.50, where it struggled to move above last week. The MACD has been on a downward trend. Therefore, silver will likely have a bearish breakout as sellers target the key support at $19.42. A move above the resistance at $20.14 will invalidate the bearish view. You can find a more updated silver price forecast on our S&R indicator page.