- IBM stock has declined by about 27% in February, wiping out about $31 billion
- Anthropic's Claude Code is capable of upgrading IBM's COBOM and has disrupted perception of whether IBM will continue to dominate in that front
- Nonetheless, IBM's strong Q4 2025 earnings and its own Watsonx Code Assistant signify a company capable of rebounding from the disruption
IBM stock has suffered one of its worst starts to a year in decades. Following steady trading near the close of 2025 and a significant rise to near $320 in January 2026, its stock has tumbled over 27% in February. On February 23, it fell sharply by 13.15%, its worst day since late 2000, dropping to $223.35. That plunge became the deepest monthly fall for the company going back to at least 1968, records from Bloomberg show.
An AI-Shaped Identity Crisis
A drop of 27% in the stock during February wiped out about $31 billion in market worth – just in one month. This shows how fast opinions change once older ways of doing business start looking weak. What sent things sideways had nothing to do with profit numbers. IBM actually cleared expectations when it shared results near the end of January for early 2025.
Instead, tension surfaced from somewhere nobody saw coming. Midway through February, Anthropic revealed a feature called “Claude Code,” capable of upgrading COBOL, IBM’s famed programming language still running core functions across banks and public infrastructure, all on its own.
This development has targeted IBM’s most valuable, steadiest income source. According to coverage by CNBC and Yahoo Finance, market players reacted fast, factoring in how artificial intelligence might handle intricate tasks once reserved for high-cost human effort.
Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign?
Many market analysts think the drop went too far, and some still rate it a strong hold with forecasts much higher than today’s price. Though news of “Claude Code” feels like the end, it misses something important- IBM has spent years tearing down and rebuilding its own path.
IBM’s own Q4 2025 report shows its watsonx Code Assistant handling COBOL-to-Java shifts just fine. Still, that view might miss how fast something like Claude Code could turn into standard gear, threatening a profit stream IBM’s relied on for years.
What Needs to Happen for a Rebound?
IBM needs to prove its AI defenses work against outside attacks. Its mainframes have got to show they still hold up under pressure. A solid performance in Q1 2026 could shift things, especially if leaders explain clearly how AI fits into upgrading systems. When clients keep opening their wallets consistently, trust tends to return.
Without those signs, IBM stock price may dip again. Slowing decline might start once live data flows smoothly through hybrid clouds. That move changes perception, less about guarding old tech, more about powering new solutions. Watch what happens after the Confluent deal wraps up around middle of next year.
IBM Stock Prediction
IBM shares show a low RSI, under 25, hinting at possible upward movement after recent drops. Nearby floor appears around $220, a key point that might hold for now. Should that break, eyes turn to $210. An extended control by the sellers could test $200, seen as critical by patient investors watching closely. On any rise, hurdles loom ahead. The primary resistance is likely to be at $257, then $280 stand tall in opposition.
