- Reliance Industries share price recently recorded four successive daily gains but has again failed to build momentum above ₹1,440
- US President Donald Trump's statement of a $300 billion Texas refinery deal is yet to be confirmed by Reliance, creating doubt among investors
- Reduced margins from Russian crude oil are causing a strain on the company's earnings
Reliance Industries stock (NSE: RELIANCE) is down 10.45% since January 2026, trailing badly for a company that tops India’s private sector rankings. Still, gains emerged recently, nearly 4.9% lifted across five trading days, marked by four straight rises. Yet, those watching closely saw resistance hold strong at ₹1,440 when traders tested it again Tuesday, March 10.
Why Reliance Stock Rebounded
US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social Reliance Industries’ plan to build an oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas. A new facility rising there would mark the nation’s first new refinery project in half a century, per his claim. Shale oil pulled from the Permian Basin will feed into its operations.
That arrangement, labeled a landmark $300 billion deal, is due to handle 1.2 billion barrels across two decades. Refined outputs could reach 50 billion gallons before winding down and construction works are slated to start come April 2026.
However, it was just President Trump who made the statement. Not a single notice reached stock markets from Reliance Industries. This gap sparked quick confusion. Doubts have grown around how big the venture really is. Questions are emerging over where the money will come from. Unclear still is exactly what role Reliance will play.
What is Weighing on the Giant?
One main thing is the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) part of the business. While Q3 FY26 profits went up a bit to ₹18,645 crore, investors worry about refining margins. The advantage of cheaper Russian crude, which helped Reliance before, isn’t there anymore because of stricter regulations and changes in trade routes.
Additionally, $300 billion is an exceptionally large amount for energy projects, and Reliance not mentioning it to exchanges is a concern for institutional investors.
The Middle East war creates a dual headwind for Reliance that is structurally more complex than for a pure upstream producer. When crude prices climb, refining costs rise, and this hits hard because RIL handles large volumes of crude oil.
At the same time, profit margins wobble since fuel price gaps shift oddly when supplies are disrupted. Unstable market reactions make planning tougher, especially for a company tied deeply to processing rather than just extraction.
Can RIL Break Above ₹1,440 in the Near Term?
To get past ₹1,440, Reliance needs to confirm the Texas refinery deal with specific financial details. Also, until Reliance Jio’s IPO happens, which has been delayed by regulatory hurdles, the stock might not have enough to stay above ₹1,440.
Buying before ₹1,440 is risky because the stock might get rejected there again. Still, Reliance shares have risen 29% across five years, then climbed 13.12% in the past twelve months. Seen alongside that history, the drop so far this year looks more like a pause in steady growth than a sign of things falling apart.
Reliance Industries Share Price Forecast
Reliance stock is trading below its 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200-day exponential moving averages, which means it needs to break through these levels to reverse the downtrend. The pivot is at ₹1,435 and the downside will likely prevail if resistance persists at that level. The first level of support is ₹1,390. Breaking below that could trigger a stronger downward momentum to test ₹1,376. To signal a trend change, it needs to close above the ₹1,440 resistance with high trading volume. Action past that could send the stock higher and test the next barrier at ₹1,447.
Reliance Industries stock on the daily time frame showing key levels of support and resistance on March 11, 2026. Created on TradingView
After four days of gains, the stock couldn’t get past ₹1,440. Investors selling to take profits, along with general market uncertainty and worries about slower retail growth, caused a loss on Tuesday.
The main risk is that refining margins are getting smaller. As the benefit of cheaper Russian crude goes away and global shipping costs increase, the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment of the business might struggle to stay profitable.
The $300 billion partnership in Texas is a long-term positive for global energy footprints. However, major projects like this take years to get going, so it will not quickly solve problems affecting the company’s performance by 2026.