Nvidia Q4 Earnings Preview: Beyond the Blackwell Boom to the ‘Rubin’ Revolution

As Nvidia (NVDA) prepares to pull the curtain on its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results this coming Wednesday, February 25, the market is no longer just looking for a “beat.” Investors are searching for confirmation that the staggering $615 billion in projected 2026 hyperscaler capex will continue to flow into Jensen Huang’s pockets.

While the stock experienced a modest 0.15% “earnings jitters” dip on Thursday to $187.16, the underlying technicals and analyst whisper numbers suggest a potential “gamma squeeze” if guidance exceeds the already lofty $75 billion Q1 target.

Nvidia’s GB300 Ultra Drives AI Revenue Upside and Margin Expansion

The headline for this quarter isn’t just the Blackwell ramp, it’s the GB300 Ultra (NVL72). Recent benchmarks from SemiAnalysis confirm that the GB300 is delivering 50x the processing power of the H200 at a 1/35th reduction in cost per token.

• The Revenue Leap: Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer anticipates a $2–$3 billion sales upside this quarter, specifically driven by the rapid enterprise adoption of “Agentic AI” workloads that require the efficiency of the GB300.
• The “Vera Rubin” Premium: Looking ahead to the late-2026 transition, the Vera Rubin system is expected to command a 40-50% price premium over current Blackwell units. With estimated entry points of $3.5 million to $5 million per rack, Nvidia is effectively inflation-proofing its margins.

Hyperscaler “Arms Race” Table: 2026 Spending Outlook

To understand Nvidia’s “floor,” one must look at the capital expenditure (Capex) of its “Big Five” customers.

Hyperscaler	2026 Est. Capex	% YoY Growth	Primary Focus
Amazon (AWS)	$200B+	+61%	Training & Inferencing
Meta Platforms	$100B	+40%	Llama 4 & Metaverse Infra
Microsoft (Azure)	$100B+	+36%	OpenAI 10GW Integration
Google (GCP)	$100B+	+33%	Gemini & TPU/GPU Hybrid
Oracle	$20B	+33%	Sovereign AI Data Centers

NVDA Technical Battleground: The “Correction vs. Breakout” Setup

On the daily and weekly timeframes, Nvidia is currently locked in a high-stakes consolidation pattern. While the long-term ascending channel remains intact, the stock is showing signs of a “compressed spring” ahead of next week’s results.

Nvidia Key Levels to Watch:

• The “Bull Trigger” ($195 – $197): This is the ultimate resistance zone. A sustained daily close above $197 would invalidate the current three-wave “abc” correction and signal a primary uptrend resumption toward $265.
• The “Support Floor” ($170): The $170 level is the “line in the sand” for bulls, reinforced by the 200-day Moving Average (SMA). As long as NVDA holds this level, the structural bull case remains the baseline.

Nvidia Growth Outlook 2026: China Re-Entry and the Rise of Sovereign AI

While U.S. hyperscaler demand remains the primary driver, Nvidia’s 2026 growth trajectory increasingly hinges on a high-stakes “re-entry” into China and the global scale-up of Sovereign AI. Currently, a massive backlog of over 2 million H200 chip orders, valued at roughly $54 billion, is waiting on a finalized U.S. national security review. If these H200 licenses are granted this quarter, it would unlock a critical revenue stream that offsets any potential “digestion period” in Western cloud spending.

Simultaneously, CEO Jensen Huang is aggressively pivoting toward Sovereign AI factories, national-scale infrastructure projects in countries like Japan, India, and the UAE. By diversifying into government-backed data centers that require specialized multilingual models and secure domestic clouds, Nvidia is effectively “de-risking” its revenue visibility through 2027 and reinforcing its status as the world’s indispensable AI platform.