- The primary propulsion behind Aramco stock price surge is the double-digit spike in oil price
- Brent crude oil prices rose to near $120 in early hours of Monday, the highest since June 2022
- Aramco's pivot to shipping via the Red Sea route has given it an edge amidst closing of the Strait of Hormuz
Aramco stock dipped briefly last week but quickly bounced back, trading close to its 52-week high of about 26.95 SAR today. This happened even with the Middle East war going on, which has messed with oil infrastructure, but surprisingly helped energy stocks. Let’s look at how Aramco, with its refinery under drone attack and main export route blocked, has gone against expectations.
Why Aramco Stock Isn’t Shaken by Risk
The market sees Aramco as having a safety net because of the geopolitical premium brought by the war. With Brent crude prices jumping to near $110 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz almost closed, Aramco’s situation changes. Even if it makes a bit less oil, the big price increase makes up for it, according to investors.
Aramco has also been quick to move things around in ways that surprised many experts. It’s been sending shipments to Red Sea facilities on Saudi Arabia’s west coast, dodging the Hormuz problem. This move to the Red Sea has turned a possible problem into a great example of good supply management.
What Will Sustain the Uptrend
For the stock price to stay up, oil prices need to stay high. That means either the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked or people keep thinking things could get worse. Experts say that if there’s no deal to reopen the strait, shipments could drop by 5–6 million barrels per day. This drop could keep Brent above $85 for weeks.
Even if profits look solid, Aramco must prove its resilience matches its balance sheet. High oil prices are currently lifting Aramco share price, yet they carry risks too. When conflict drags on, consumption tends to shrink. Once crude climbs past $120, shaky economies may falter, and this worries investors. Fears of worldwide downturns could then weigh on Aramco’s value.
What Are the Risks?
If the war escalates without hitting Saudi facilities, higher prices could persist, benefiting Aramco’s revenue. However, companies like Aramco remain vulnerable to being pulled into the conflict. Also, challenging consensus that war guarantees prolonged highs, a quick resolution could normalise supply, pressuring prices lower.
Aramco Stock Price Forecast
The RSI for Aramco stock is around 64.19, suggesting it’s getting close to being overbought but could still go up. If it stays above the psychological pivot at SAR 27.00 with good volume, it would mean a clear move up. The next level to watch is SAR 27.40, beyond which it could target SAR 27.64. If it goes down, SAR 26.77 is the first support level, with SAR 26.50 as the next one. If it closes below 26.00, it would suggest that the war effect is disappearing faster than oil prices can make up for it.
Aramco stock on the daily time frame with key levels of resistance and support on March 9, 2026. Created on TradingView
Investors are prioritizing the surge in global oil prices, which have topped $110, over minor physical damage. The increased revenue from higher prices is currently expected to outweigh the costs of repair or temporary localized production dips.
The main risk is demand destruction. If oil prices stay too high for too long, the world economy could slow down, causing a big drop in long-term oil demand that would eventually hurt Aramco’s value.
Most people think war is good for oil, but here, the unique risk is damage to important infastructure. If a strike badly damages a major processing spot, even high prices won’t make up for stopping exports completely.