Shanghai Index Forecast: China Stocks Outlook

Summary:
• The Shanghai index has retreated in the past few days as investors continue worrying about the Chinese property market.

The Shanghai index has retreated in the past few days as investors continue worrying about the Chinese property market. The index is trading at ¥3,294m, which is slightly below last week’s high of ¥3,426. However, the index remains about 15% above the lowest level this year, which has outperformed American indices like the Dow Jones and Russell 2000.

China real estate worries

The Shanghai index has done well in the past few months despite the recent lockdowns. Data published this week showed that China’s exports and imports remained at an elevated level in June. The economy has also been supported by the stimulus offered by the government and the relatively low-interest rates by the PBOC. In addition, international demand has been significantly high in the past few months.

Internally, however, the economy is showing some signs of strain. For example, the collapse of Evergrande has hit many in the real estate sector. In addition, the number of Chinese refusing to pay mortgages for their unfinished projects has risen sharply in the past few days. Data shows that homebuyers have stopped paying mortgages on at least 100 projects. In a note, analysts at Jefferies said that delayed housing projects make up about 1% of the country’s mortgage balance. That equals about $58 billion.

Most Shanghai index companies were in the green on Thursday. The worst performers were firms like Fujian Funeng, Hubei Chutian Expressway, Gemdale Corp, and Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline, among others. On the other hand, the top performers in the Shanghai Composite index were Hubei Chemicals, Anhui Quanchai Engine, and Asian Star.

Shanghai index forecast

The daily chart shows that the Shanghai index has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months. It rose to a high of ¥3,426, which was the highest point since March 7th of this year. The index has now pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. It is also above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Therefore, the outlook for the Shanghai composite index is still bullish, with the next key resistance level being ¥3,426. Besides, the index has formed a bullish engulfing pattern. Therefore, a drop below ¥3,260 will invalidate the bullish view.