Rolls Royce Share Price Prediction: Still a Long Way from Recovery

Summary:

There is still a long way for bullish Rolls Royce share price predictions to take hold, given the headwinds to the stock's recovery.

Any new Rolls Royce share price predictions have to follow the direction of the break of the existing area of consolidation. The stock has traded in a tight range bordered by 82.21 (price floor) and 86.40 (price ceiling) the entire week. However, the stock opened Thursday’s trading session with a gap up, but this move was rejected at the range’s ceiling, leading to some covering of the gap. Despite this, the stock remains higher on the day by 2.05%.

The Rolls Royce share price has slumped 30% since 2022 started, triggered principally by cancellations of orders for the company’s Trent 7000 engines and the cancellation of orders by Air Asia for 63 A330neo aircraft (equivalent to 126 Trent 7000 engines).

These cancellations threaten to stifle any recovery of revenues in the company’s aerospace division. A typical Trent 7000 engine commands a hefty price tag. Therefore, mass cancellation of orders for this engine type carries significant downside risks to the company’s revenue. In addition, the company presently has a debt profile of over 5 billion pounds, adding to the headwinds.

For the Rolls Royce share price to see significant recovery, the company has to find a way to stop the bleeding in its aerospace division and cut down on its debt portfolio. The plan to dispose of non-critical assets to the tune of 2 billion pounds will greatly help give room for more positive Rolls Royce share price predictions.

Rolls Royce is also investing heavily in diversifying its revenue base. Apart from research and development into propulsion systems powered by green energy, the company also plans to delve into electricity generation. Its defence arm is launching a Pioneers of Power campaign to explore growth opportunities in this area. A small modular nuclear reactor is up for approval in the UK by mid-2024. There is also a commitment to achieve net-zero carbon emissions across its entire value chain by 2050.

Can these endeavours boost the Rolls Royce share price predictions?

The 4-hour chart shows the price in consolidation after the completion of the bearish pennant pattern. The active daily candle has tested the range ceiling at 86.40 without a break, keeping the price range-bound. The bulls need to take out this ceiling to make way for an advance towards 90.98 (12/25 April highs). Above this level, additional resistance levels are found at the 94.61 price mark (22 March and 22 April highs) and 97.26 (16 March and 21 April highs). 100.05 is a psychological barrier that exists at the 28 February low/5 April high site.

On the other hand, a breakdown of the range’s floor at 82.21 (28 April low) allows for a descent towards 78.20 (27 August 2020 low and 8 September 2020 high). 76.00 is a potential psychological pitstop formed by the 3 September low, and this has to give way before the 73.23 support (3 August 2020 low and 23 November 2020 high) level enters the picture.