Rivian stock price started the year on a very positive note but the price action reversed as the earnings failed to maintain the investor interest. As a result, the stock of the US EV manufacturer is trading 11% below its yearly peak after finding strong support at $15.65.
In August 2023, RIVN stock hit its yearly high of $28.06. This was a 47% surge from its yearly open but the shares failed to keep momentum and tanked after the release of the Q2 earnings report. Currently, the stock is struggling to break above its 200-daily moving average which is around $18.22.
Rivian Automotive Inc. went public via an initial public offering (IPO) in 2021. In the process, the EV producer sold $153 million shares at a price of $78 per share. The company raised around $12 billion in the successful IPO which valued it at $66.5 billion.
Since then, Rivian shares have been trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker NASDAQ: RIVN. However, the stock is trading 78.2% below its IPO price which is a major setback for the IPO investors.
The volatility increased in the Rivian stock price as the firm reported its Q3 earnings earlier this week. These earnings showed that the company beat the analyst estimates in the third quarter of 2023 while also increasing its production forecast.
In addition to boosting the full-year production forecast to 54,000 from the previously reported 52,000, the company also narrowed its full-year adjusted EBITDA loss by $200 million. Consequently, the stock price initially surged but the sellers took the opportunity to unload their bags above the 200 MA.
For a deeper understanding of the recent price action, let’s analyze NASDAQ: RIVN on a daily timeframe. Therefore, it is quite evident from the following chart that $19.60 is the biggest resistance on the chart. This level has acted as a major pivot on many previous occasions and goes back till May 2022.
The presence of the 200 MA around $18.22 adds to the resistance as the price recently faced an intense rejection from the key moving average.
The biggest line in the sand for the most momentum traders is the 200-day moving average. The momentum shifts to the bulls when the price gains strength above this key indicator. Therefore, a breakout above this moving average might make Rivian stock price prediction bullish. However, in case of a breakdown below $15.6, I expect a bearish acceleration towards $12 level.
Most of the veteran analysts believe that the US economy may enter a recession due to the prolonged tightening from the Fed. In addition, the interest rates are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. These market conditions may significantly impact Rivian share price which is already facing strong headwinds.
Nevertheless, the company’s finances remain strong and there are strong chances that it will mark a significant bottom in the coming months.
Rivian Automotive is still a relatively new player in the EV market which is currently dominated by the giants like Tesla. It will also be very interesting to see how the management steers through the tough macroeconomic conditions in the coming months.
Therefore, the market competition and the macroeconomic outlook remain the biggest variables in making a Rivian stock price prediction for 2030.
You don’t have to visit any physical brokerage houses to invest in the stock market these days. Investing in growth-oriented tech companies like Rivian can be done straight from your home. This is enabled by online brokers like IG Prime, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity etc.
As some brokers restrict their services to specific geographical regions, it’s better to check which one is supported in your jurisdiction.
Rivian Automotive has emerged as a major player in the EV sector. Furthermore, the company has increased its full-year production forecast twice this year which shows a strong demand.
However, the biggest concern at the moment is that the margins in the EV industry are reducing due to the price wars between Tesla, BYD, NIO and Rivian. Additionally, the disappointing Q3 results from the whole sector in general and Tesla in particular are also adding to the bearish outlook for Rivian share price.
The best way to invest in EV stock is to diversify one’s portfolio by adding multiple shares. This is because many players in the industry are facing financial issues and it is not advisable to put all eggs in one basket.
Nevertheless, considering the production and delivery numbers of Rivian Automotive, Rivian stock seems to be a good long-term investment. If you plan to invest in this stock, then you must closely watch the $15.5 support, which needs to be held for a bullish reversal in the coming months.
This post was last modified on Nov 09, 2023, 13:11 GMT 13:11