QQQ price slumps to worst month in a year on debt Ceiling jitters

Summary:

The Invesco QQQ price dropped 5.8% in September as the threat of a Fed taper, and a US default sent the dollar higher and equities lower.

The Invesco QQQ price dropped 5.8% in September as the threat of a Fed taper, and a US default sent the dollar higher and equities lower. Despite starting the month at a record high, souring risk sentiment caused the Nasdaq-tracker to finish lower every week in September.

Major US equity markets sank on concerns that rampant inflation will encourage the FOMC to become more hawkish. This week, fed chair Jerome Powell appeared to change his view on inflation from transitory to structural. Subsequently, the odds of a rate hike in 2022 have increased dramatically. As a result, the US Dollar spiked to its highest in a year, driving equity markets lower in the process. Adding to the risk aversion is the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. Unless Congress agrees to lift or suspend the $28.5 trillion spending cap, the US will effectively be broke by October 18th, resulting in a historic default on its debt obligations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen yesterday warned that a failure to reach a deal would “be catastrophic for the economy and individual families”. Furthermore, Yellen called for the cap to be removed altogether. Despite this, an agreement is not closed, which is an immediate threat to the QQQ price.

Will this dip be bought?

The daily chart highlights QQQ’s strong performance since the March 2020 pandemic low. The QQQ price has trended higher for 18 months, gaining 130% to $382.78 on September 7th. Since then, the price has dropped 7% and finished yesterday, clinging to the 100-day moving average at $357. As the chart shows, previous trips below the 100 DMA have proved excellent buying opportunities. However, I’m not convinced that will be the case this time around.

If the QQQ price finishes the week below $357, I expect to see sales accelerate next week. A logical target is the 2000 DMA which lines up with series of former highs in April at $340. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32 is close to oversold. Therefore, if the QQQ price slides lower, it is vulnerable to a sharp rebound. Furthermore, although the technicals are breaking down, the news flow will dictate the price actions. Subsequently, the bearish view remains intact until Congress reach a deal. If a compromise is found, it will remove the most significant obstacle to the QQ price and invalidate the bearish thesis.