Santa Clara, CA, USA - Apr. 23, 2016: NVIDIA Corp. NVIDIA Corporation is an American technology company that designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming market, as well as system on a chip units (SOCs) for the mobile computing and automotive m
Nvidia stock price underwent a post-split correction in the last ten days of June, well into the first week of July 2024. Nvidia stock split took place on June 7, a day after surpassing Apple to become the world’s second-largest company by market capitalisation. In what can correctly be described as a rollercoaster ride for the company, it rose even further to surpass Microsoft and became the world’s largest company with a market capitalisation of $3.34 trillion on June 18, 2024.
Notably, the company’s value doubled in the first six months of 2024, after tripling its value in 2023. The stock price registered a post-split high price of $140.76 on June 20, but declined sharply to $118.11 four days later as many investors took profit following a long bull run. However, as of this writing, NVDA has returned to the uptrend and trades at $125.24, which is about 4 percent higher than the stock split price.
However, some analysts opine that the AI hype could be cooling off, and NVDA could experience slow growth in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, the fundamentals of the global AI market remain strong, and will likely keep NVDA climbing further in the second half of the year.
Nvidia share price has outperformed the rest of the tech blue-chip tech companies this year, including the likes of Apple and Microsoft. The company’s stock was split after it rose past $1,200 per share, necessitating the move to make it more affordable to retail investors. The company’s AI chips have seen a spike in demand, with tech companies such as Amazon, Meta and Microsoft among its biggest customers.
February, however, was the pinnacle of its success, when it saw its value rise by $272 billion in a single day, following a forecast-beating Q3 2023 earnings report.
Nvidia is an American multinational fabless chips manufacturer that specializes in the production of graphical processing units (GPU), data science APIs, and system-on-a-chip (SoCs) units. The high-tech company is also a dominant supplier of Artificial Intelligence (AI) hardware.
Nvidia was founded in 1993 to address the computational constraints of that era with a completely different approach. The company was listed on Nasdaq stock exchange on January 22, 1999. Nvidia stock trades on the exchange with the ticker NVDA and is one of the major tech companies in the world.
Nvidia is scheduled to start shipping its Blackwell processors in the second half of the year, and the company is upbeat that the demand will be good. Investment Bank Morgan Stanley retained a buy rating for NVDA in its July release, with analyst Joseph Moore revising upwards his price target from $116 to $144. That would give it a headroom of 15% from the current stock price. The bank’s research showed high demand for Nvidia’s H100 and H200 Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), particularly in China and Taiwan.
At the Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition Conference held on June 17-June 21, Nvidia showcased the capabilities of Visual Generative AI in high definition mapping and autonomous driving.
June 2024 will be a memorable month for Nvidia, as it is the month when it rocketed past long-term tech giants, Apple and Microsoft to become the world’s largest company by market capitalisation. At $3.34 trillion, Nvidia was worth more than twice the value of Facebook’s parent company, Meta, and almost six-times the value of Tesla. However, the decline in the share price from $140 on June 20 to $125 means that the valuation currently stands at $3.09 trillion- below Microsoft and Apple.
The company’s Blackwell platform’ announced in March, was central to its growth, as it heralded a new dawn in the AI world, redifining what AI chips could do. Blackwell is a platform consisting of software as a service and hardware, and with it, Nvidia stays miles ahead of the competition.
The first product under the Blackwell platform will be GB200 chips, which are optimised for GPUs running on artificial intelligence and will be available towards the end of the year. GB200 reportedly have the capacity to train large language(LLMs) models 4x faster than H100 processor and are fitted with over 200 billion transistors. Google, Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft have already set up themselves to provide access to GB200 through their cloud platforms.
Not wanting to be left behind in the AI revoution, Intel has been developing its own range of AI-centric GPU products. For a long time, Nvidia has been dominating the GPU and AI market by being the biggest chip manufacturer. In the same way, Intel is the market leader when it comes to CPU chips.
Intel announced on April 9th at the Intel Vision 2024 event that it has developed an advanced version of its AI processors called the Gaudi 3 chip. The Gaudi 3 AI accelerator chips are reportedly 150% faster than NVIDIA’s H100 processors. In addition, they have 2X the network bandwidth and 1,5 times the memory bandwidth of Gaudi 2 processors. Intel says that the product will be available from the third quarter of the year. The company also revealed that it will ship the product to Dell, HP Enterprise, Lenovo and Supermicro.
The latest bull run has seen a number of big names at NVIDIA sell their shares. According to the latest news, Nvidia director Tench Coxe, who has been on the company’s board since 1993, has sold 200,000 shares worth $170 million. Another board member, Mark Stevens sold 12,000 shares at $10.2 million.
Nvidia’s Q4 fiscal year 2024 earnings sparked the fire that has kept NASDAQ: NVDA soaring. With sales tripling to $22.10 billion and net income soaring to $12.29 billion, Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings beat forecasts by far and shook Wall Street. Analysts estimate earnings above $20 billion in 2024. Nvidia projects to earn $24 billion, with a margin of plus or negative 2% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025.
The following chart shows the price action and the technical analysis on the NASDAQ: NVDA chart on a daily timeframe.
As long as the price avoids going below the $99.28 level (50-MA), Nvidia stock price prediction would remain bullish for me. A break below the $88.27 pivot level will favour the bears, and further losses below $68.61 (200-MA) may push the price towards an imbalance.
The AI hype still seems to be raging, and Nvidia’s stock split means that more retail investors will likely be lining up for a piece of the world’s largest company. This will likely keep NVDA price rising in the near-term. Furthermore, the recent correction saw the stock move out of the overbought territory and the daily momentum signals that the buyers are in control. Also, the Fed is expected to slash interest rates starting September, and that could improve the business sentiment and propel stocks further up.
Technical analysis shows that the momentum on Nvidia stock price currently favours the buyers, with the pivot at 124.17. A continuation of control by the bulls will likely break the resistance at $126.83, and potentially test $128.20 in extension. On the other hand, a break below the 124.17 mark will favour the bears to move to the $122.63 support. Furthermore, extended control by the sellers will invalidate the upside narrative and potentially move the price lower to test $121.23.
The NVDA chart is on a strong upside momentum, and it is probable that we might see it maintain the upward trajectory in the near term as retail investors raise their appetite. However, as stated above, the company is potentially overvalued, as the stock has been overbought for a long period. Also, down the line, investors will start looking at the level of innovation in the AI industry, especially the AI products that Nvidia’s key customers like Meta, Apple, Google and Microsoft come up with.
Intense competition among the tech giants will be music to Nvidia’s ears, at it will mean increased demand for its chips and data solutions. Look for a rise to near the $170s territory, and consolidation towards the $75.57-$99.28 range in the medium term, with multiple retests of the range lows and range highs.
Also, analysts are now expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high until the second half of 2024. These economic conditions won’t be supportive for the stock market. Furthermore, a slowdown in economic activity in China could weigh down on Nvidia stock price.
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Due to multiple fundamental variables involved, Nvidia stock price prediction 2025 is anybody’s guess. However, still we can use some advanced technical analysis to take a shot at this difficult task. A pitchfan analysis on higher timeframe is a very good indicator of a long-term trend. Performing it on the Nvidia chart, gives us a price range of $89.97-$212.74 by 2025.
The same pithcafork analysis performed above, also gives us a projected Nvidia stock price forecast 2030 of $300-$583. If the AI gets a mainstream adoption by that time, then the stock could be easily go back above $1,000 as well. However, the macroeconomic conditions and the growing competition must also be taken into account.
While in the midterm I expect a major correction in Nvidia shares, in the long term I’m very bullish. After a correction in 2024, I expect the stock of the chip-making giant to perform well beyond 2025.
Considering the longterm uptrend on Nvidia stock chart, the stock could be trading at $1400. A more conservative price target will be $1200. Both of these price targets are 20-40% above current price level. However, the global economic conditions and the shortage of semiconductors will remain key challenges for the company and must be taken into account.
After hitting an all-time high of $957, NVDA stock is currently having a pullback. The bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already predicting this move. Nonetheless, the rally which began after the Q3 earnings report appears to be strong enough to retest the all-time highs once the consolidation comes to an end.
Since getting listed on NASDAQ stock exchange in 1999, Nvidia stock has split six times. The most recent stock split occurred in June 2024 when the stock split 10-to-1. The other four splits happened in 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007 and 2021.
You may invest in Nvidia stock in multiple ways. There are many online brokers where you can sign up and buy Nvidia stock within a few minutes. A few big names in the brokerage industry include, Fidelity, Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, IG Prime etc.
Adjusted for the stock split, NVDA stock started 2024 at $48.17, and has surged by 181% to trade at $135.58 per share as of this writing. This makes Nvidia stock, the best performing tech stock of this year. The latest financial report of Q4 FY 2024, triggered an exponential run which took the price to its new all-time high.
Even though NASDAQ: NVDA is surging like there’s no tomorrow, NVIDIA stock price prediction for this year is not looking very bullish. I expect at least a pullback in the coming months as investors take profit before the next earnings report release in August 2024. If you are looking to invest in Nvidia for a long term, there could be much better entry points around mid-July 2024.
I’ll keep sharing updated Nvidia forecast and my personal trades on Twitter where you are welcome to follow me.
This post was last modified on Jul 03, 2024, 16:59 BST 16:59