Next Week's US CPI Data to Test the Fear and Greed Index

Summary:

The market sentiment as measured by the Fear and Greed index is set to face a key test from next week's US CPI data.

The market sentiment is nearing equilibrium. This is according to the CNN Money Fear and Greed Index, whose latest reading is 46.0. This level is considered neutral, and being just short of the mid-way point between fear on one hand and greed on the other is a justified reading considering the state of today’s markets.

I have done a scan of several crypto social media groups. The hefty pessimism and feeling of despair seen in April – June 2022 is starting to give way to renewed optimism. Some of this optimism comes as Bitcoin has remained above the 20k mark for several weeks.

Even the unfolding story of a large-scale hack of 8,000 wallets on the Solana network has not shaken the crypto markets that much. Indeed, a look at an alternative Fear and Greed index which focuses only on the cryptocurrency market, shows that while there is still a measure of fear, traders are less fearful than they were a month ago.

The Multifactorial crypto market sentiment analysis points to a reading of 30.0 on this index, up from last month’s average of 19.0. The US stock markets are rebounding gradually, but traders remain cautious because of recent hawkish comments by several notable members of the US Federal Reserve. All eyes would be on the 10 August CPI reading.

Suppose the consumer price index beats market expectations and stays at stratospheric levels. In that case, this reinforces the recent Fedspeak of aggressive hawkishness, and we could see the stock markets pare recent gains. The same outlook plays out for cryptos if BTC cannot hold the 20k support, which could happen if higher rates promote another round of exodus from risky assets.

If inflation stays stagnant or falls, this could reinforce the previous position of the market that expects Fed dovishness from the comments that came out of the last 75 bps rate hike. Next week will be critical to the Fear and Greed Index.