Netflix stock price succumbs to vertigo above $560: What next for NFLX?

Summary:

For the tenth time in a year, the Netflix stock price has failed to maintain the $560 level. But will this week's earnings push NFLX to a new all-time high?

For the tenth time in a year, the Netflix stock price has failed to maintain the $560 level. But will this week’s earnings push NFLX to a new all-time high?

Streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) finished Friday’s trading at $530.31, down $12.64 (-2.33%)

Netflix, the world’s largest video streaming service, has fared less well in 2021 than it did in 2020. In fact, Friday’s closing price was $8.5 below January 4th’s opening trade. Furthermore, in the last 12 months, NFLX is higher by just 4.45%. Compared to the NASDAQ 100’s 15.60% year to date gain and 12 months 40% return, NFLX has underperformed by a long way.

Of course, we should remember that 2020 created a perfect storm for Netflix. Global lockdowns likely brought much of the future demand forward, as stay-at-home policies left the world desperate for something to lift the boredom.

This is reflected in Netflix’s second-quarter user growth projections. Whereas the second three months of 2020 added 10m new users to the service, this year, the company projects just 10% of that.

Moreover, the movie industry as a whole has been crippled by virus-related production delays and is only just starting to churn out new material.

However, NFLX revealed plans to use its war chest to expand its original content and committed more than $17 billion to an aggressive spending plan. Furthermore, the second half of this year sees a return of hits, including The witcher and Stranger things.

Second-Quarter earnings estimates

Q2 revenue is expected to come in at $7.30 Billion, an increase of 24% YoY.

Q2 Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $3.16, Vs. $1.57 for the same period last year.

But the key for the Netflix share price will be user growth. The company projects 1m new users in the quarter. Investors will hope the company is under-promising in the hope of over-delivering. During the same period last year, NFLX added 4 million users. However, this was way below the expected 6m increase.

NFLX Technical Outlook

The daily chart shows NFLX has traded broadly sideways for the last year in a wide $460-$590 channel. However, only 4 times during that period has Netflix closed above $560. Therefore, I consider this a significant resistance level for the stock.

This is validated by Thursday’s $557.54 high, which marked the start of a 5.5% reversal into Friday’s close.

Notably, the price had worked its way onto an overbought condition. And at $557.54, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed above 70, indicating the momentum had become stretched.

Furthermore, the 100-day moving average at $516.70 has just crossed below the longer-term 200-day at $517.09. This also highlights the lack of a positive trajectory in the last few months.

Below the 100 and 200, DMA’s sits the 50-day counterpart at $508.20. A breach of which would indicate NFLX may extend lower towards the support of a 10-month ascending trend line.

The trend from September 2020 is visible at $480.00 and should be considered extremely significant support. A failure to hold this level clears the path to the March 2020 high of $393.00.

However, if subscriber growth surprises on the upside, the Netflix stock price is likely to do the same. In this event, for me, the key is $560.00. A convincing clearance above this number shines a light on the all-time high at $593.50. Considering NFLX’s underperformance, the stock could comfortably exceed this target if user growth supports it.

On that basis, Tuesday’s earnings should provide exciting viewing one way or another.