Lloyds share price is up by more than 1% today as investors react to the company’s third quarter earnings. The shares are down more than 56% this year alone and are close to the lowest level since 2012.
Lloyds share price has underperformed its peer British banks like Barclays and Standard Chartered because of two main reasons. First, unlike these banks, Lloyds does not have significant business internationally. Instead, the bank has narrowed its focus to the UK, making it a close proxy to the overall economy.
Second, unlike banks like Barclays, Lloyds has not invested in the trading business. This business has helped banks in Europe and the United States cushion the losses from the main lending business. Also, lower interest rates have affected its business.
In its results today, the company said that its earnings came in at more than £10.8 billion in the first nine months of the year. That was a 17% decline from the same period in 2019. In the third quarter, the company recorded a revenue of more than £3.4 billion.
It also made a profit before tax of £1 billion and an after tax profit of £700 million because of low loss provisions and higher mortgage uptake. Indeed, the bank said that mortgage and consumer activity improved in the quarter.
Lloyds is also in a strong financial footing, having generated a trading surplus of $5 billion in the first 9 months. Still, the management warned of a cloudy outlook as the number of Covid-19 cases continued to rise. It now expects that the full year net margin will be about c.250 basis points while the operating cost will be below £7.6 billion. It also expects the impairment charges to be at the lower end of the previous forecast.
Lloyds is not the only European bank that released its earnings today. In a statement earlier today, Credit Suisse said that its net profit declined by 38% in the third quarter because of currency headwinds. The company’s profit came in at 546 million francs, below the 700 million that analysts were expecting.
To calm markets, the bank announced that it would restart its buybacks in 2021.It was also the exact opposite of what UBS reported. The company had a 99% increase in net income because of the trading business.
There is a sense in which analysts believe that Lloyds share price and other European banks are relatively cheap.
Looking at the four-hour chart, Lloyds stock has struggled to find direction in recent months. The stock has also struggled moving above the important resistance level at 29.85p, which is between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.
The price has moved above the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. It is also slightly above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest level in September and October. Therefore, I suspect that the bullish trend will continue so long as the price is above the ascending line. If it does rise, the near term target will be $29.85. Still, the biggest risk is the pandemic and the fact that government support to companies is ending as debt rise.
