The Kusama price is attempting to recover from its worst run of form since 2019. However, the daily chart says KSM could have more downside to follow.
Kusama is last trading at $195.90, down $8.66 (-4.23%).
Polkadot’s canary network Kusama has had a torrid time of it in the last 2 weeks. On June the 10th, KSM was trading at $536.99, just 17% below its 18th of May all-time high of $630.00.
Two weeks later, KSM has lost 4 big figures and 70% of its value. What’s more, unless the Kusama price stages a recovery soon, it could be on the way much lower. Considering the experimental blockchain has described itself as “Polkadot’s wild cousin’ you could argue the volatility should be expected.
On a positive note, the chart only paints one side of the picture. Kusama has enjoyed some success and is considered a great long term prospect. Furthermore, two days ago, Kusama announced DeFi network Karura, the winner of its first parachain auction.
Nonetheless, KSM has fallen victim to a generally weaker cryptocurrency market which has left many questioning the valuations even at these steeply discounted rates.
Let’s start with the negatives. First, the 50-day moving average has completed a bearish crossover below the 100-day. Furthermore, the recent price action suggests the Kusama price will retest a descending trend line visible on the daily chart at $98.90.
Granted, this prediction is overtly negative and should be viewed as a worst-case scenario. Moreover, it would likely be dependent on a much larger evacuation of capital from crypto in general.
Now, let’s turn that frown upside down and look at some supporting factors. Firstly, the price has come down a long way in a short space of time. This resulted in the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) reaching a 2020 low point during Tuesday’s meltdown.
However, at 31.20, it fell short of flashing an oversold signal, typified by reading below 30. Nonetheless, we shall say that was close enough.
Secondly, KSM is close to recovering above the $199.80 low set during the May collapse. Notably, KSM gained 178% in the 2 weeks following its last visit below $200.00, so this could be important.
On balance, I am optimistic about KSM. However, in the current climate, a leg lower cannot be discounted. Although considering the ‘close to’ oversold conditions, any sell-off could be prone to yet another quick reversal.
Follow Elliott on Twitter.
