Is the Glencore Share Price about to break out of a 10-year downtrend?

Summary:

Since its 2011 stock market debut, the Glencore share price has never surpassed its opening day high. However, GLEN may soon relive its former glory.

Since its 2011 stock market debut, the Glencore share price has never surpassed its opening day high. However, GLEN may soon relive its former glory.

Swiss-Anglo commodity trader Glencore Plc (LON: GLEN) jumped +4.90% to a 15-month high of 431.35p on Wednesday.

Rising commodity prices have led to a boom in mining stocks in 2021, with many trading close to all-time highs. However, despite Glencore gaining 43% in 2021, it remains 40% below 2011s, 559.15p record. But there are encouraging signs the decade-old Apex could soon be under threat.

Glencore recently reported first-half profits of $1.3 Billion, eclipsing the $2.6 billion loss in the same period last year. As a result, the company announced a special dividend of $0.04 per share and a $650m share buyback programme.

Considering, metals prices have been on an incredible run this year, GLEN offers a relatively cheap way to take advantage of the commodity boom. Copper and Zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange are close to their record levels, and Coal prices are squeezing higher due to the Natural gas shortage. This should provide considerable tailwinds for the Glencore share for the foreseeable future.

Not to mention, the stock is close to breaking out of a long-term downtrend.

GLEN Technical Analysis

Firstly, the daily chart shows Glencore has extended higher out of a bear flag formation. This is a positive development and should encourage follow-through buying. However, it’s the Weekly chart that highlights the opportunity.

A clear descending trend line is visible from 2011’s high. The trend was resolute in reversing the price in both 2017 and 2018, and therefore is a significant level of resistance.

Presently the trend line is seen at 343.00p, within a whisker of yesterday’s closing price. Should the Glencore share price extend above the trend line, and more importantly, sustain it by tomorrow’s close, it will confirm the breakout. This should initially target the 416.90p high from 2017. And if the commodities rally stays intact, there is an argument to be made for the price to make at a run at the ATH.

However, buying ahead of the break is risky. And taking into account the trend line’s significance, it may reject the first clearance attempt. Although, as long as the Glencore share price remains above the 200-day moving average at 275.42p, the bullish view remains valid and suggests higher prices.