The Russian Ruble is particularly sensitive to geopolitical factors, and the US election happens to be one of these. Rabobank analysts believe that a win for Joe Biden will end in sanctions for Russia and weakness on the Ruble, which favours more upside on the USDRUB. This could also be aggravated by lower crude oil demand, which could be depressing for the oil-linked Ruble.
There is good reason to believe this is the case. Biden had alluded to this himself in the debates, boasting at a point” they know me”.
Democrats are still piqued by the election loss of 2016, which they believe was a direct result of interference by Moscow, with Donald Trump’s collusion. The revelations that Russia was allegedly paying a bounty to the Taliban for every US soldier they killed, really riled up lawmakers in Washington. There is little doubt that Democrats want payback and a Biden victory gives them the opportunity. If they can take over the Senate and retain their House majority, this would be too good a combo to make the payback work.
Piotr Matys, Senior Emerging Markets FX Strategist at Rabobank, believes that the “prospect of a blue wave” and lower oil prices would fuel more upside on the USDRUB.
What do the charts say, and what happens if the US remains in the hands of the GOP?
The pair is currently in an intraday correction, forming a dark cloud cover with Monday’s candle. Today’s downside appears to have negated the violation of the 79.931 resistance, putting a halt to the breakout move, for now. The stall at this resistance marks the completion of the breakout from the bullish flag seen on the daily chart; a continuation move from the breakout of the falling wedge pattern in June 2020. Price now targets the 78.195 downside target, with 76.511 and 75.974 forming additional support areas.
On the other hand, resumption of the uptrend according to Rabobank’s analysis (conditional on a Biden victory) could allow buyers to aim for a break of the 79.931 and 80.669 resistance (30 March highs), with 81.377 and 82.321 serving as additional targets to the north.
