- Summary:
- While investors expect the Fed to initiate rate cuts before September, mixed US macroeconomic fundamentals will keep GBPUSD under pressure.
GBPUSD slid further in the red on Thursday, signaling investor confidence over the US GDP data which was in the pipeline. The tested a two-week low of 1.2875 before inching up to trade at 1.2877, and down by 0.1 percent in the intraday session. Cumulatively, the cable was down by 0.2 percent this week, and on course to close the second successive week of decline at press time.
What’s moving GBPUSD?
While the market has raised its bets on potential Fed interest rate cuts before September, traders have been slow to tame their appetite for the dollar on account of mixed US macroeconomic data. In the latest development, the US S&P Global Services PMI beat forecast figures in July, coming in at 56.0 versus 54.7. On the other hand, manufacturing contracted, with the PMI reading at 49.7, to miss the forecast mark of 51.7. Meanwhile, the number of Building Permits came in lower than expected, while the New Home Sales figures declined to 617k in July, less than the forecast target of 639k.
The pound was boosted by the July S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI which read 51.8 against a forecast figure of 51.1. However, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Service PMI missed the mark, coming in at 52.7 versus the forecast 52.6 to put a lid on potential gains by GBPUSD. The absence of UK macroeconomic data on Thursday puts the currency pair under pressure, as multiple US data will be out.
They include the Initial Jobless Claims numbers, and Durable Goods Orders for June. However, the highlight of the day will be the second quarter GDP reading, will set the tone for the rest of the day ahead of the more-impactful PCE Index release set for Friday.
Momentum indicators
On the 4-hour chart, the GBPUSD pair has been moving below the middle line on the Bollinger Bands indicator and is attempting to cross under the lower band. This signals control by the sellers, and calls for further downside. Also, the MACD line is below the signal line, cementing support for the downside.
Support and resistance levels
GBPUSD looks to continue the downside on sustained resistance at 1.2880. The downside momentum could find the first support at 1.2871, with extended bearish control potentially breaching that mark to take the pair to 1.2860. Conversely, a move above 1.2880 will favour the buyers to take charge. The upward momentum will likely encounter the first barrier at 1.2888, but extended control by the buyers could breach the mark and invalidate the downside narrative. In addition, it could result in a stronger upside momentum to test 1.2900.
