USDTRY
The GBPTRY is pressing higher as the Lira remains under pressure against global currencies, but next week sees the Turkish Central Bank meet to discuss interest rates and we could see a rally in the Turkish currency if they decide to take action. Analysts are expecting rates to remain at 8.25% but a recent surge in inflation may see the bank take measures to arrest the fall in the Lira.
Inflation expectations were for a slight decline after the recent global crisis, however, the actual figure was a gain of 11.77% on an annualized basis. The Turkish Lira has steadily declined since the Turkish bank cut interest rates from almost 25% to the current level after inflation declined.
Government-owned lenders have been reported to be sellers of the currency, with around $500 million sold on Thursday according to Bloomberg. State banks are not allowed to comment on interventions in the fx markets.
Further pressure has been applied to the Lira after Moody’s downgraded 13 Turkish banks and the country’s economy within days of each other. The negative ratings reflect the growing risk of a balance of payments crisis, which could see further capital controls and restrictions on currency flows.
The GBPTRY is pressing higher and the pair will try and test the 10.00 figure from here. It’s possible that this level could provide a high above before the interest rate decision and traders may look to take profits before the rates meeting. A short position may be a risky move, but a further assessment can be done ahead of the September 24th event. Downside target would be the 50-day moving average near 8.300. The Investing Cube team is available to assist all levels of traders with the Forex Trading Course or one-to-one coaching.
