GBPJPY at critical point ahead of BOJ rate decision and UK inflation data

Summary:
• The GBPJPY pair is at an important point as traders wait for the BOJ interest rate decision and important inflation and retail sales data from the UK

The GBPJPY pair is relatively unchanged today as traders wait for key economic numbers and the BOJ interest rate decision. The pair is trading at 135.05, which is slightly below the intraday high of 135.40.

BOJ decision eyed

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is among several central banks that will meet this week. The others are the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BOC). Most analysts polled by Reuters and Bloomberg expect the BOJ will leave everything in place. Meaning, they will leave rates negative at -0.10%, quantitative easing, and yield curve control unchanged.

The decision will come at a time when the Japanese economy is emerging from its deepest recession in modern history. Recent data has shown that the country’s key sectors of manufacturing and services are going through challenges.

In addition to the BOJ decision, the GBPJPY will react to Japan’s capacity utilization and industrial production data from Japan.

UK data eyed

The GBPJPY pair will also react to a significant number of economic releases from the United Kingdom. On Tuesday, the Office of National Statistics will release the GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, and trade numbers from the UK.

The data will be followed by inflation numbers from the country. Analysts expect that the headline CPI declined from the previous 0.5% to 0.40. They also see the core CPI remaining unchanged at 1.2%. Meanwhile, on Thursday, we will receive retail sales and employment data from the UK.

GBPJPY technical outlook

The GBPJPY pair is trading at 135.05. On the daily chart, this price is along the 100-day exponential moving averages and slightly above the 50-day EMA. It is also slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Also, the price seems to be forming a bullish pennant pattern, which is shown in a rectangle below. This means that the price may continue rising as bulls attempt to test the next resistance at 138.85.

On the flip side, a move below 134 will signal that bears are prevailing. This price is at an important psychological level and also below the 50-day EMA.

GBPJPY forecast