- Summary:
- In this GBP/USD forecast, we look at the reasons why the British pound could experience a pullback ahead of the important UK GDP data
The GBP/USD price has been on an upward trend as focus shifts to the final UK GDP data that will come out tomorrow. The US inflation, stimulus, and initial jobless claims are also being watched closely.
UK GDP Data: The ONS will publish the latest UK GDP numbers tomorrow. While these numbers are important, they will likely have no major impact on the GBP/USD price. That’s because traders already have an idea of how the economy performed in the fourth quarter. Also, a lot has changed materially since the quarter.
For one, the UK has already delivered millions of coronavirus vaccinations in the past few months and the number of daily infections has dropped. Also, the yield of UK gilts has started to rise, reducing the possibility of negative interest rates.
Later today, the GBP/USD price will react to the latest initial jobless claims data from the US. Analysts expect the data to show that more than 725,000 Americans filed for initial claims last week. That will be a decrease from the previous week’s 745,000.
GBP/USD forecast
On the two-hour chart, we see that the GBP/USD has been on a slow and steady upward trend recently. It has also formed an ascending channel that connects the lowest and upper sides since March 5. It is also along the upper side of the Donchian channels. Therefore, in my view, while the upward trend is likely to continue, we should not rule-out another pullback to 1.3885, which is the lower side of the ascending channel.
GBPUSD chart
