The FTSE 100 index is up by more than 0.20% as investors remain laser-focused on the US election. Other global indices are also rising, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up by 0.60% and 2.15%, respectively. Similarly, in Asia, the Hang Seng, Nikkei 225, and Shanghai composite are all in the green.
Investors are eying the US election and its results. According to the Wall Street Journal, Joe Biden has already collected 223 votes while Donald Trump has won 174 votes. However, results in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona are relatively close.
Trump has a significant lead in most of these states. However, the situation could still change as mail-in ballots continue being counted.
At the same time, most indications are that Trump could retain the seats. As I wrote before, gamblers at Smarkets and most other betting sites like Betfair show that most people expect the president will win. Similarly, the US dollar index has also risen, which is another sign.
A Trump win will possibly be a good thing for the United Kingdom and FTSE 100 constituents because of the close relationship that the two leaders have. That would increase the odds of a trade deal between the two companies.
Meanwhile, on earnings, very few FTSE 100 companies will release their earnings today. The only major company that will release its results is Marks & Spencer. That could have a major impact on both M&S and Ocado.
Other trading updates in the UK will be from Morgan Sindall Group, Stobart Group, and Gattaca. In addition to these firms, the FTSE will react to the UK services PMI, US ADP jobs data, and earnings from European companies like BMW and Danske bank.
On the daily chart, we see that the FTSE 100 index has bounced from this week’s low of £5,493 to the current high £5,783, which is the highest it has been since October 27. The price has moved back to the descending channel that is shown in blue. It is also approaching the important 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at £5878.
Therefore, for today, I expect that the index will be increasingly volatile. However, a clear Trump victory will possibly see the index test the upper side of the channel at £6,000. On the flip side, a move below this week’s low of £5493 will see the index continue falling because it will send a signal that there are still more bears in the market.
