- USD/JPY has returned above 156 for the first time in two weeks
- Japanese news outlets have reported that PM Sanae Takaichi is pressuring the central bank to support her stimulus plans
- A move towards 160 seems feasible although BoJ interventions and inflation data could impact the momentum
Now back above 156.00, the USD/JPY pair stirs new questions after its sharp move up following quiet trading lately. Instead of steady gains, some wonder if this jump signals real strength or just a brief pause in an ongoing pullback. Fresh discussion has emerged, though not everyone agrees on what comes next for the forex pair.
The Return of the Takaichi Factor
A jump like this usually has clear roots. This time it ties back to fresh political unease settling into Tokyo. Today, Reuters reported that tension was building between PM Sanae Takaichi and the central bank.
It appears like PM Takaichi, usually pushing for more stimulus, is quietly urging BOJ head Kazuo Ueda to hold back on raising rates too fast. Though investors were betting hard on an April interest raise, the latest talk hints at officials fearing slower growth, especially since January’s core inflation slipped to 1.5%. With leaders hinting they favor easier money and a softer yen, traders tend to dump the currency soon after.
The Path to 160.00
Is the pair headed back to the psychological 160.00 mark? That is not totally out of the question, but for it to happen, Japan’s inflation numbers will need to fall well short of 2%, opening room for Takaichi to slow things down at the central bank.
Eyes stay fixed on fresh picks for the BOJ panel – soft-stance names that might surface any moment now, according to Reuters. Should Takaichi’s safety net settle in for good, breaking past 160.00 stops being a chance. It simply flows there. Yet here stands the 156–158 range, still firm, acting like an invisible wall built not just by numbers but by past choices of Japan’s officials.
Though some assume a clear path toward 160, that stretch has stopped progress before-more than once. Each time it gets tested, verbal or actual market interventions follow, often enough to slow momentum. Traders may count on steady climbs, except history whispers otherwise when prices wander too close.
A couple of things will dictate how the USD/JPY forex pair moves. They include US data, hints from the Fed, along with Japan’s fiscal and monetary policies. As I discussed here, the pair’s return above 156 shows real footing for now, less fear of action by Tokyo, yet pushing toward 160 won’t happen without resistance.
USD/JPY Forecast
Earlier this month, prices bounced from the 152.00 uptrend line. It currently pivots at 155.00 and action above that level signifies that the buyers are in control. Immediate barrier is at 156.50. Clearing that opens a path toward February’s peak at 157.60. Should the upside momentum fade, 153.95 becomes the first support. If the pair loses that support, though, the upside narrative will be invalid and the action could go lower to test 152.70.
USD/JPY on the daily chart with key levels of resistance and support on February 24, 2026. Created on TradingView
New signals emerged showing PM Takaichi urging the central bank to hold off on raising rates again. At the same time, softer price numbers arrived, shrinking hopes for an aggressive policy shift by the BOJ next month.
The 160.00 level is a major psychological and historical resistance point. Reaching it often triggers concerns about currency intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance to prevent excessive yen weakness.
Thursday’s Tokyo CPI number carries substantial weight. When inflation holds under 2%, the yen often keeps slipping. That could drag USD/JPY right up toward 158. Late timing adds pressure.