- - Traders could gae potential risk-on/risk-off market conditions during the week.
- - Nvidia, gold are expected to top the lust of top-traded stocks.
As markets enter the last trading week of January (Feb 23-27, 2026), here is a peek at what market participants and our readers should be watching. This article presents the major macroeconomic risk events for the week, the key catalysts, and the impact of the 15% global tariffs announced by the US government of Donald J Trump over the weekend.
Global Markets: The Big Picture
There are two competing narratives to contend with regarding risk appetite.
a) The first is that inflation is still not cooling as fast as the Fed may want it. The latest US Core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s main inflation barometer, came in hotter than expected. It came in at 0.4%, higher than the market expectations of 0.3% and the 0.2% prior number. This report could taper Fed easing expectations, with implications for USD-denominated assets and gold prices.
b) Growth appears to be cooling. The evidence lies in the recent US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data that came in at 51.2 and 52.3, respectively. Advance GDP data also showed a contraction from a prior 4.4% (upward revision) to 1.4%.
Therefore, the markets are expected to be highly sensitive to this week’s release of the US Producer Price Index and Nvidia’s earnings. The latter is expected to be the flagship report for the earnings of AI stocks, being the Q4 2025 release.
Global Markets: Macro Catalysts to Watch
Despite the relatively thin economic news calendar this week (compared to the week ended 20 February), a few macro drivers will keep markets volatile enough to spot trading opportunities.
FX Calendar
US Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Friday
As far as the inflation metric with the nearest-term impact on what happens next to US interest rates at the March Fed meeting, the US PPI report is the macro print to watch. This report covers the producer inflation report for January 2026, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics has just about caught up on the data release delays caused by last year’s 44-day US government shutdown. The PPI report is important because it shapes expectations for the next consumer inflation report and, consequently, the market pricing of the Fed’s rate pathway. The markets expect the headline and core PPI to come in at 0.3%. Prior levels stood at 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.
2. US Consumer Confidence + Case-Shiller, due on Tuesday, 24 February
If you are seeking macroeconomic data deemed highly important in the slowdown vs. soft-landing debate, these are the reports to look for. Consumer confidence is a strong indicator of whether the economy is in a slowdown or will have a soft landing. At the same time, the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Prices Index YoY remains a key housing data point. Consensus numbers indicate 1.3% for Case-Shiller (prior 1.4%), while US Consumer Confidence is projected to rise from 84.5 to 87.6.
3. Durable Goods
The Durable Goods Orders report is a useful indicator of growth and capital expenditure. It is capable of moving cyclicals in an environment where growth is already under scrutiny, as is the case now.
Stock Market-Earnings
1. NVDA Earnings, due 25 February.
NVIDIA’s Q4 2025 earnings report is due on 25 February. This Wednesday’s news release is expected to be the single most important catalyst for the stock markets. Keep an eye not just on NVDA, but also on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. NVDA has been flagged by multiple preview reports as the bellwether for the entire AI complex and the risk-associated indices.
The main focus in the earnings report is the quality of the forward guidance, the trend in AI capital expenditure, and other important factors that can affect margin and growth expectations, such as China’s and export policy direction.
2. Broader Earnings
Other earnings reports expected to be important this week include those from retail giants and other mega-cap names in the consumer, housing, and enterprise spaces. These include Salesforce, Lowe’s, Home Depot, and Dell.
Geopolitics/trade
1. Tariffs
This weekend, US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all countries, and soon after raised it to 15%, in what will be a renewed escalation of trade tensions between the US and other countries. This comes just after the US Supreme Court ruled his tariff regime illegal. The situation looks set to raise political and legal questions domestically, while escalating trade tensions that have hardly simmered since the first major tariffs were announced in April 2025. Expect investors to hone in on assets that are sensitive to risk-on/risk-off scenarios and global growth assumptions.
2. Middle East Risk Premia
Tension continues over a potential US-Iran conflict. The US military buildup continues amid plans for new talks, with US President Trump warning Iran of “really bad things” to happen if no deal is struck within his 10-15-day deadline.