- - The tariff headlines and news data (US PPI) are the dominant EUR/USD forecast drivers for the week.
- - Today saw a risk-off start to the market, but there was not much activity on the EUR/USD.
The week’s EUR/USD forecast is presented below. Despite a relatively light economic calendar, tariff headlines and the producer inflation data could produce a volatile end tot he week’s action on the pair.
Market mood today (as of Feb 23, 2026)
The market’s risk sentiment this Monday was cautious. This risk-off market sentiment was triggered by the US’s weekend announcement of new tariffs on all countries. The pronouncement has introduced a new wave of trade policy uncertainty, especially as the new tariffs directly conflict with the US Supreme Court’s decision last week that rendered the tariff regime illegal. The new blanket tariffs, which were initially announced at 10% and raised to 15% a few hours later, are sending risk-associated assets, such as equities, cryptos, and the Euro, lower, while the safe-haven US Dollar and associated assets, such as Tether, are holding firm.
- Rates: There was a mild bid to safety for Treasuries, resulting in lower yields on the day.
- Equities: Tech stocks and software equities, which are typically associated with risk-on sentiment, also lost ground due to a softer volatility bid.
- FX: The US Dollar was mixed, as traders balanced the tariffs risk-off push against the backdrop of softer growth and uncertainty (last week’s steep contraction in the Advanced GDP from 4.4% to 1.4%).
EUR/USD Performance on the Day
The EUR/USD had a choppy performance, and the daily candle has straightened out into a doji (neither buying nor selling predominance). This is typical of a currency pair that is behaving like an uncertainty barometer.
The US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and the growth risk premium stemming from poor GDP data undermined market confidence in the USD, lifting the EUR/USD. Still, the risk-off sentiment from the tariff jump reasserted the USD’s status as a safe-haven asset.
EUR/USD Forecast for the Week
With the major news docket slated for Friday (US PPI), the base case for the EUR/USD forecast for the week is for the pair to range-trade until the news release date (27 February). The dominant market catalysts are the tariff headlines (and the legal proceedings related to the US government’s noncompliance with the SCOTUS ruling) and the US PPI data. Friday’s PPI data is very important, as it is likely to be the news headline that swings rates on the front end and the US Dollar’s value this week, ahead of March’s Fed meeting.
On the Eurozone side, the data flow comes from the Eurozone Final CPI data. This has a moderate impact but can still introduce some volatility given the current market conditions.
EUR/USD Forecasts: Key Levels to Watch
The key levels to watch are as follows:
- Resistance: 1.1850-1.1880
- Secondary resistance: 1.1930 (Feb 2026 highs)
- Also, not the descending trendline resistance.
- Support: 1.1740
- Secondary support: 1.1670-1.1700 if there is a further risk-off push and acceleration of USD stabilization
Bull case scenario: EUR/USD to push higher towards 1.1850-1.1921 if tariff uncertainty remains and US data disappoints.
Bear case scenario: EUR/USD to decline towards 1.1700-1.1670 if risk-off sentiment deepens and PPI pushes yields higher, easing Fed rate cut expectations.
EUR/USD Forecasts for the Week: Technical Outlook
The price remains range-bound within the demand zone that lies between 1.1750 and 1.1813. The bulls need to force a break of the upper boundary and the trendline to unlock a move towards 1.1921 in the first instance, this area being the site of the February 2026 high. 1.2018 is the 27 January 2026 high, and it only becomes available if 1.1921 is uncapped. 1.2000 is the pitstop for this move, being the 29 January high.
On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1750 could trigger a further decline towards the 1.1700 – 1.1671 price zone. The 18 January 2026 low at 1.1575 becomes the new target if the bulls fail to defend the 1.1700-1.1671 price range.