- The EUR/HUF forecasts for 2026 will be determined primarily by the MNB easing expectations and the election risk premium.
Several macro drivers, including the upcoming Hungarian elections, dominate the EUR/HUF forecasts for 2026. The reference rate for the pair set by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the day is in the 380-387 range, covering late January and early February 2026. Retail price feeds across FX platforms indicate that the EUR/HUF is trading at the lower end of this price band.
With Hungary due to enter its election window shortly, the base case for most analysts covering this pair is for the price to trade within a defined range for a significant period in 2026, with a slight bias towards further easing.
Live Chart
The EUR/HUF is currently trading at 380.96, down 0.10% on the day. This comes as the January recovery stalled at the 390.00 resistance, allowing sellers to come in once more to continue pushing the downtrend.
EUR/HUF Forecasts 2026: Macro Drivers
The macro drivers for the EUR/HUF forecasts are as follows:
- MNB policy and inflation pathway
- Election risk premium
- Fiscal headlines/credit rating
- Global risk sentiment
1. MNB Policy & Inflation Pathway
Following the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) ‘s decision to leave rates unchanged at 6.5% at its January 2026 meeting, the key questions are: when will the MNB start cutting rates, and by how much? The consensus is for 75-100 bps worth of cuts in 2026. If the MNB starts to cut rates earlier than expected or increases the scope of easing beyond market expectations, the Forint could take a hit. Furthermore, any inflation persistence could force the MNB to keep rates at current levels for longer, potentially supporting the HUF.
2. Election risk premium
Heightened volatility is expected in the period leading up to the April 2026 vote that pits the ruling Fidesz party against the opposition Tisza party. This is because the exit polls show the opposition in the lead, which makes for the closest election race in recent history.
3. Fiscal headlines
Pre-election spending has raised deficit concerns, prompting Fitch to cut Hungary’s credit rating to negative. Markets would be watching for data that indicates a widening of the deficit, an HUF-negative situation.
4. Global risk sentiment
The EUR/HUF is a risk barometer for Central European FX. The HUF benefits from risk-on sentiment, while risk-off episodes lead to Euro buying at the expense of the HUF, irrespective of local data.
EUR/HUF Forecasts 2026: Institutional Targets
ING has the most comprehensive EUR/HUF forecast call for 2026. According to its 2026 CEEMEA FX Outlook, ING calls for the EUR/HUF to trade within the 385-395 range in 2026. ING expects the pair to hit the upper band of this range during the election period and in autumn, driven by MNB easing expectations.
ING’s January 2026 FX table indicates a 3-month target of 385, a 6-month target of 390, and a full-year target of 385. In other words, the EUR/HUF is expected to trade around 385 with occasional spikes at the mentioned periods within the year.
Commerzbank has a quarterly price pathway that sees the pair at 386 by the end of Q1, 395 by Q2, 397 by the 3rd quarter, and 400 by the end of the year. This is one of the few calls that sees the pair rising throughout the year.
UniCredit’s EUR/HUF forecast sees the pair at 383 by Q1 2026, 392 by Q2 2026, nd 398/399 by the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively. This forecast is contained in the Investment Institute’s FX forecasts for 2026.
Base case: The base case scenario sees the pair range-trading in 2026 between 385-395, with intermittent bursts to the 390 price mark as already noted in ING’s forecast. This scenario sees the MNB remaining cautious, but tilting more dovish as the year progresses. Election risks are also expected to produce volatility without a breakout.
Bear case: The EUR/HUF bear case assumes inflation will persist, delaying MNB rate cuts. Global risk sentiment is also expected to remain constructive, which should support the Forint and allow the EUR/HUF to edge lower to the 380-385 price band. Sellers are expected to keep selling on any rallies.
Bull case: Any repricing of rate cuts (earlier than expected and more aggressive) and expansion of the pre-election spending deficits make a case for the EUR/HUF to inch towards the 390-395 price mark, favouring the EUR/HUF forecasts from Commerzbank and UniCredit.
EUR/HUF Forecast 2026: Technical Outlook
The price reversed from its 2025 peak and printed lower highs and lower lows, leading to a break of the long-term support trendline. Following the break of the trendline on the weekly chart, the current trend remains bearish. The price is now approaching multi-year support.
Below 391.87, the bias remains bearish. A break below the weekly close at 377.30 ushers in a fresh decline towards 368.67 initially, with a potential to head towards the mid-360s if downside momentum accelerates.
On the flip side, a higher low above the 377.30 weekly close ushers in bounce targets at 391.87 and 399.64 thereafter if the bulls reclaim and then defend the 391.87 price level. Failure to reclaim 399.64 means any such bounces are corrective rallies within the downtrend. If 399.64 is reclaimed, a further push north towards 416.53, the December 2024 high, cannot be ruled out.