EURUSD Trading In A Confined Margin As Mixed Figures Limit Gains

Summary:
• After the lower-than-expected US GDP reading, the EURUSD trading pair now waits for multiple high-impact macroeconomic releases on Thursday.

EURUSD is marginally up at the opening of the European session on Thursday. Supported by sentiment surrounding Wednesday’s US GDP release, the pair traded at 1.0846, after rising by +0.08% at 08.20 GMT. Furthermore, macroeconomic data from the Eurozone’s two largest economies, Germany and France, have helped strengthen the pair.

The U.S. economy grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter in 2023, lower than the projected 3.3%. Evidently, the difference was not large enough to trigger a significant shift in the EURUSD trajectory. The pair has remained relatively flat in the aftermath of the release, and traders now await fresh impetus from US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Indexes and Initial Jobless Claims data.

Mixed figures from the Eurozone to limit EURUSD advances

EURUSD got a boost from growth in France’s CPI in February, at 0.8%, which exceeded the forecast figure of 0.7%. Also, the country’s GDP grew by 0.1% in Q4 of 2023, while projections had shown stagnation. However, the euro is weighed down by a decline in Germany’s Retail Sales figures for January. Europe’s largest economy reported on Thursday a decline in retail sales by -0.4%, against a projected growth of 0.5%. Similarly, Consumer Spending fell by -0.3%, worse than a projected decline of -0.1%in January.

In addition, Germany’s Unemployment Rate rose by 5.9%, more than the projected 5.8%. Also, the Unemployment Change rose to 11,000, beating the consensus forecast 6,000. These figures will limit potential gains by the euro on Thursday.

Five key central bank officials-three FOMC members and two from the German Bundesbank are scheduled to speak on Thursday. Their speeches will come after key macroeconomic data releases, and could provide new propulsion for the EURUSD trading pair. Furthermore, Germany will release its year-on-year and February’s monthly CPI figures.

Technical analysis

EURUSD is pivoting at 1.0815, and its RSI leans toward upside momentum. The bulls will need to be in control above the pivot to break the 1.0850 resistance. This will build the momentum to test 1.0865. However, if the sellers take control with the EURUSD trading pair below the pivot, the 1.0795 support will be susceptible to breach. Extended control by the bears could see them test 1.0780.