EURUSD – Selling 1.19 for 1.18, the Best Strategy in the Last 6 Months

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Written By: Mircea Vasiu

Nov 24, 2020, 11:06 GMT 11:06

EURUSD

Summary:

EURUSD tight range still leaves room for profitable trading. Here is a trading strategy that worked best since the summer of 2020.

The EURUSD pair is back at the 1.19 level after a round trip. Yesterday’s break lower in the price of gold triggered a higher USD move. However, by the time the EURUSD pair reached 1.18, a slow but steady bounce followed. Little or no retracements led the EURUSD back to 1.19.

However, a close look at how the EURUSD performed since summer, reveals an opportunity for bears to try for a hundred pips move to the downside. Eight times in a row the EURUSD has been sent one hundred pips lower after it reached 1.19.

Such price action shows both bullish and bearish conditions. On the one hand, the ability of the EURUSD price to come back to the 1.19 level is impressive. It shows strength, despite the ECB’s dovish tone all this time. On the other hand, the inability to hold above 1.19 gives bears an opportunity to trade.

EURUSD Technical Picture

This strategy is responsible for eight hundred pips so far in the months following the first 1.19 break. As such, if history shows patterns that repeat, bears will want to short the pair close to the 1.19 level with a stop above the 1.20 high and a take profit at 1.18.

Is the ninth consecutive profitable trade in the cards?

EURUSD Tight Range

Written By: Mircea Vasiu

Mircea, MBA in International Business graduating Magna Cum Laudae, trades for a living and contributes to various financial publications for more than six years. He writes about macroeconomics, stock indices, currencies, and most recently ETFs and individual stocks. For the past decade, he’s involved in everything trading related, mostly in the currency market, both with manual and algorithmic trading.