The EURUSD pair started its free-fall after securing a new high on June 24. During its bearish rally it cleared many essential support levels and finally came to a halt after hitting the low of 1.0880 in October.
From the October low, the EURUSD pair started its bullish rally and is currently heading towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1209. The Fibonacci levels are drawn from the high of June 24 to the low of October 1. As long as the critical 1.1209 level holds as resistance, I think it is safe to assume the long term bearish trend will remain in play.
If the price indeed rejects the 61.8% retracement level, then it would confirm to me that it would be the end of the bullish rally from the October low. However, if the 1.1209 level fails to cap the bullish rally, a trend reversal might take place, and daily close above the 1.12012 might expose the June 24 at 1.1414.
On the contrary, a strong rejection of the critical resistance level at 1.12078 will favor the long-term bearish trend, and the price might reach the 38.2% level at 1.1082, followed by the October low.Download our latest quarterly market outlook for our longer-term trade ideas.