EURUSD: “Expect the EUR to Trade Between 1.17-1.19”

Summary:

The EURUSD will trade between 1.17 and 1.19 according to analysts at Danske Bank who wrote in response to the Fed decision and weak US data.

The EURUSD pair is little changed today as traders continue to reflect on the Fed decision and the relatively weak economic data from the United States. The pair is trading at 1.1850, which is higher than this week’s low of 1.1745.

Economic data from the United States has been relatively weak recently. On Wednesday, the data showed that retail sales rose by just 0.6% in August. The core retail sales rose by 0.7%, which were all lower than expectations. And yesterday, housing numbers were weaker than expected. Housing starts declined by 5.1% to 1.4 million while building permits fell by 0.9% to 1.47 million. The two were lower than what analysts were expecting.

These numbers came a day after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision. The bank left the main interest rate operations unchanged and signalled that the rates will remain at these levels for at least three years.

Looking at the economic calendar, there is no major data that will come out today. Still, the focus will remain on the economic data released this week and the recent decisions by the Fed and ECB. In a statement, analysts at Danske Bank expect the pair to remain between the 1.17 and 1.19 range in the near term. They wrote:

“EURUSD started the day by moving lower due to the general risk-off after the slightly disappointing Fed meeting Wednesday night. EUR/USD recovered during the day and remains in the 1.17-1.19 range, which we expect the cross will continue to trade within near-term.”

EURUSD technical outlook

EURUSD is trading at 1.1850. On the four-hour chart, the price has had a nice bounce off the lower support line of the channel shown in blue. The price is also slightly above the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. With the channel arrangement, I suspect that the pair will continue rising as bulls aim for the next resistance at 1.1900.

A clear move above this level will see the price rise to the next resistance level at 1.2000. On the flip side, a move below the support at 1.1750 will mean that there are more bears in the market, who will be keen to push the price lower.