The euro’s losses against the US dollar extended on Monday, with the EURUSD currency pair down by 0.09% to trade at 1.07800 as of 10.54 am UTC. Markets in the Eurozone are closed for the Easter holiday, but incoming macroeconomic data from the US later in the day will likely inject fresh impetus into EURUSD. The pair has been on the downtrend since March 8th and has lost about 1.40% of its value since then.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the Fed was satisfied with the February inflation figures. This provides support to the expected three rate cuts in 2024, but some policymakers have previously stated that more data could be needed before rate cuts are announced. However, the US economy has also reported weaker economic data in recent days, with the US dollar plateauing against the DXY currencies over the last week. Nonetheless, the DXY remains strong above 104.00 as of this reading.
US consumer consumption figures released on Friday did little to provide upthrust to the dollar. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE excluding food and energy) declined to 0.3% month-over-month in February from 0.5% a month earlier, matching the forecast figure. The overall PCE followed the same trend, declining from 0.4% to 0.3%, below the forecast 0.4%. Meanwhile, the annualised Core PCE came in at 2.8%, meeting the forecast estimate.
Later on Monday, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell short of forecast figures, coming in at 51.9, versus 52.5. However, the dollar got upward propulsion from the March ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 50.3, higher than the forecast 48.5. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index stood at 55.8 exceeding the forecast 53.3.
Technical analysis
The RSI on the EURUSD trading pair signals likely downward advances. The pair faces resistance at the 1.0773 pivot, and the support at 1.0738 will break if the sellers remain in control. That could build the momentum to test the next support at 1.0720 in continuation. Alternatively, a break above 1.0773 will favour control by the buyers, who will face resistance at 1.0796. Furthermore, a break above that level could create momentum to test 1.0803.
