EURUSD Comes Back with Vengeance as It Moves Above 1.18

Summary:

The EURUSD pair reversed course and bounced back above the 1.18 level after the ECB's Lagarde introductory speech at the forum on central banking.

The EURUSD pair bounced back from the 1.1750 low seen yesterday. It did so on the back of a strong message sent by the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde in the introductory speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.

From that moment on, the EURUSD traded with a bid tone. In fact, it was not only the EURUSD that reversed course but all the Euro pairs. The EURAUD bounced from below 1.62 to almost 1.63, the EURGBP is back threatening 0.90, and even the EURJPY sits comfortably above 124.

The short-term technical perspective outlook on the EURUSD pair still favors the downside. However, the recent bounce broke the downward channel and now retests the neckline of a possible head and shoulders. A break there opens the gates to a new attempt at the highs.

Lagarde’s Introductory Speech Decisive For EURUSD Recovery

Christine Lagarde’s speech ruled out the possibility of a new rate cut in December. As a reminder, the ECB did not act in October. However, it pre-committed to act in December, and many were expected a further cut into the deposit facility rate. Well, that is out of the table for now.

Instead, the ECB signaled that it would increase the quantitative easing program and probably expand the horizon for the PEPP facility. Also, it will likely deliver easier terms on the TLTROs in December.

EURUSD 1h Chart Developments

The only thing that took the market by surprise was the ruling out of a rate cut. The rest were, more or less, priced in, especially if we consider that the Fed will make its move in December as well.

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD pair looks still dovish. However, both bulls and bears can make something of this scenario. On the long side, bulls may want to remain invested for a move above 1.19 while 1.1760 lows hold. On the short side, selling against the 1.19 while targeting 1.16 makes sense for an appropriate risk-reward ratio.