The EURUSD pair was little changed as investors waited for another blockbuster jobless claims data. The number, which will be released today, will shed light on the state of the American economy as the country battles one of the worst financial crisis on record.
Last week, the numbers showed that more than 6.1 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the previous week. This was a higher number than the one released previously when the initial jobless claims rose to 3.25 million.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the number released today to show initial jobless claims at more than 5.25 million. This will bring the total claims filed in the past three weeks to more than 15 million. Some economists in the Bloomberg poll estimates that the number could rise to a high of more than 9.25 million.
These jobless claims numbers are the worst numbers to ever been released. For example, the number of Americans who filed for these claims peaked at about 700k during the last financial crisis.
Some analysts expect worse. James Bullard, a member of the FOMC, expects the unemployment rate to reach a historic high of 30% this year. This I would be the worst number ever recorded.
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Looking at the four-hour chart, we see that the EURUSD pair has been moving on a downward trend. The pair has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern happens because of the indecision between the bulls and bears.
This triangle pattern is nearing its tip, which is usually a sign that a breakout is nearing. In addition, the price is slightly above the 50-day EMA and the Ichimoku cloud. This means that bears could prevail. On the flipside, it is also possible for the pair to break out in the opposite direction.